铂钯：降波后的再择向

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After the volatility adjustment of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange at the end of December, the price directions became clear again. Their upward drivers mainly come from the macro - level, with the weakening of the US dollar index and the market's bet on the decline of the US national fortune [1]. - In 2026, the fundamental outlook for platinum is stronger than that for palladium. The supply fluctuations of both are limited, and the comparison of their fundamentals is mainly from the consumption side. Palladium's consumption growth is expected to be insufficient due to the substitution of new - energy vehicles for traditional fuel - powered vehicles, while platinum has diversified consumption structures and increasing investment demand [2]. - Before the market liquidity tightens significantly, the main investment direction for platinum and palladium is to buy on dips. Given the stronger fundamentals of platinum, some investors prefer the cross - variety arbitrage of going long on platinum and short on palladium. Currently, the price spread between them is large enough to stimulate the substitution of platinum by palladium in the automotive and supply fields, and attention should be paid to the potential price increase of palladium and the timing of taking profits for the long - platinum - short - palladium strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - Since the volatility adjustment of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange at the end of December, the price fluctuations have narrowed, showing a triangular consolidation pattern. Platinum prices converged to around 615 yuan/gram, and palladium prices to around 480 yuan/gram. Recently, platinum prices have risen by nearly 9%, and some palladium contracts have increased by over 3% [1]. Macro - level Drivers - Although the US no longer imposes additional tariffs on key resources, which eases the structural contradictions of platinum and palladium, after the US's actions such as the arrest of Maduro and Trump's mention of forcefully annexing Greenland, the US - EU relationship has deteriorated. The European countries are selling US Treasury bonds, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index. The market's bet on the decline of the US national fortune may further increase, and the balance between "money" and "goods" is tilting towards "goods", giving more premium space to platinum and palladium [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side: The supply structures of platinum and palladium are quite different, but their supply fluctuations are relatively limited. High prices have stimulated the production enthusiasm of mines, and the impact of Western sanctions on Russian palladium exports to China is minimal [2]. - Demand Side: Over 80% of palladium's end - consumption is for automobile exhaust catalysts. With the accelerated substitution of new - energy vehicles for traditional fuel - powered vehicles, its consumption growth is expected to be insufficient, and the supply - demand gap will significantly narrow in 2026. Platinum has a more diversified consumption structure. Automobile exhaust catalysts account for only 40% of its consumption, and investment and jewelry demand account for 30%. With the rise in platinum prices, investment demand is increasing, and the prospects of commercial aerospace and large - scale application of hydrogen energy also bring good consumption expectations. In 2026, the supply - demand gap may further widen [2]. Investment Strategy - Before the market liquidity tightens significantly, the main strategy for platinum and palladium is to buy on dips. Some investors prefer the cross - variety arbitrage of going long on platinum and short on palladium. As of January 23, the price spread between platinum and palladium has reached 185 yuan/gram, which is large enough to stimulate the substitution of platinum by palladium in relevant fields. Attention should be paid to the potential price increase of palladium and the timing of taking profits for the long - platinum - short - palladium strategy [3].