Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.58%, volume increased and positions decreased. Currently, rebar supply has rebounded to a high level while demand is weak, the fundamentals continue to deteriorate, and steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factor is that the futures price has fallen close to the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance. It is expected to continue the low - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.52%, both volume and positions expanded. At present, the supply pressure of hot - rolled coil remains, the demand resilience is weakening, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate again, and prices are under pressure. The relatively positive factor is that speculative demand is acceptable, and the short - term price will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand changes [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore strengthened with a daily increase of 1.21%, both volume and positions expanded. Currently, the shipments of miners have seasonally declined, but inventories are high, the supply pressure is not relieved, and demand is weak. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and ore prices are still likely to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are pre - holiday steel mill restocking and the warming of commodity sentiment. It is expected that ore prices will show an oscillatory and stable trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In 2025, the fixed - asset investment in Xiongan New Area increased by 14% year - on - year. The coordinated development of Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei has deepened. In 2025, Hebei's fixed - asset investment increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the investment of construction projects worth over 100 million yuan increased by 9.6% year - on - year, driving the province's investment growth by 6.5 percentage points [7]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in January are expected to be 1.8 million units, and new energy vehicles are expected to reach 800,000 units. Affected by the halving of purchase tax subsidies, the car market started weakly at the beginning of January, but gradually recovered. The monthly retail market is expected to be 1.8 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 20.4% and a year - on - year slight increase of 0.3% [7]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, Fortescue's iron ore production was 49.8 million tons, a 2% decrease both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year. The shipment volume was 50.5 million tons, a 1% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 2% increase year - on - year [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, and their price changes are provided. Also included are the prices and price changes of PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, freight, SGX swaps, and iron ore price index [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing prices, price increases or decreases, trading volumes, volume differences, positions, and position differences of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are presented. The rebar contract closed at 3,142 with a 0.58% increase, the hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3,305 with a 0.52% increase, and the iron ore contract closed at 795.0 with a 1.21% increase [11]. 4. Related Charts - Steel Inventory: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (including steel mills and social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore [13][14][17]. - Iron Ore Inventory: Charts present the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills, and the iron concentrate powder inventory of domestic mines [21][22][24]. - Steel Mill Production: Charts display the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 independent electric arc furnace steel mills for building materials [26][28][32]. 5. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply has increased to a high level while demand is weak, the fundamentals continue to deteriorate, and prices are under pressure during the off - season. The futures price near the valley - electricity cost provides downward resistance. It is expected to continue the low - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [33]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Supply pressure remains, demand resilience is weakening, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate again, and prices are under pressure. The relatively positive factor is acceptable speculative demand. The short - term price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [33]. - Iron Ore: Miners' shipments have seasonally declined, inventories are high, supply pressure is not relieved, and demand is weak. The fundamentals have not improved, and prices are still likely to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are pre - holiday steel mill restocking and the warming of commodity sentiment. It is expected that prices will show an oscillatory and stable trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [34].
钢材&铁矿石日报：市场情绪偏暖，钢矿震荡回升-20260123
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2026-01-23 10:52