GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-01-23 11:10Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [4]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the proportion of active funds holding banks remained stable at 1.9%, while passive funds increased their holdings by 1.6 percentage points to 7.0%. Notable banks that received increased allocations from active funds include Ningbo Bank, Industrial Bank, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank [2][4]. - Active funds saw a decrease in the number of shares held by 5.0% to 2.56 billion shares, with a slight decline in market value by 0.4% to 30.58 billion yuan. Conversely, passive funds increased their holdings by 25.7% to 6.14 billion shares, with a market value increase of 31.3% to 110.4 billion yuan [4][14]. - The report highlights specific banks with significant changes in fund holdings, such as Industrial Bank (+1.23 percentage points) and Agricultural Bank (-0.13 percentage points) [4][15]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Overview - Active funds' market value in banks decreased slightly to 30.58 billion yuan, while passive funds' market value rose to 110.4 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards passive investment strategies [4][14]. - The report identifies banks with increased fund holdings, including Ningbo Bank (+0.08 percentage points), Industrial Bank (+0.05 percentage points), and Bank of China (+0.04 percentage points) [4][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes for the banking sector in 2026: 1. Identifying banks with expected performance growth, recommending Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Nanjing Bank. 2. Emphasizing banks with convertible bond expectations, recommending Chongqing Bank and Changshu Bank, with Shanghai Bank as a related target. 3. Continuing a dividend strategy, recommending Bank of Communications, Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank [4][17].