供给扰动与地缘不确定性共振，铂金显著上行

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Due to the resonance of supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties, platinum prices have significantly increased. The fundamentals are healthy and macro expectations are positive, so platinum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It's advisable to consider long - position layouts on dips [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs New Dynamics and Reasons - South Africa, a major supplier of platinum - group metals, has declared a "national disaster state" due to floods, which may impact local mining production, logistics, and supply chain stability. Geopolitical and trade frictions still pose risks. Under the influence of supply - side disruptions and geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector has strengthened. As of the time of writing, the main platinum contract on GFEX has risen 9.71% to 681.7 yuan per gram [2] Fundamental Situation - Supply side: South Africa faces risks of power supply and extreme weather. With few new projects from mining companies, overall production is limited. It is expected that global platinum and palladium mine production will increase by 2.8% and 4.8% respectively in 2026, reaching 173.6 tons and 228.2 tons. - Demand side: In 2026, the global economic recovery will drive industrial demand to continue to pick up, and jewelry demand will also rise, offsetting the decline in automotive catalyst demand. Price fluctuations may stimulate investment demand. It is expected that global platinum demand will grow 0.7% to 266.1 tons, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 37.9 tons [3] Summary and Strategy - In the long term, the high concentration of platinum supply means continuous volatility risks, while demand will expand steadily driven by industry and investment. The "rate - cut + soft - landing" scenario will amplify price elasticity. With healthy fundamentals and positive macro expectations, platinum prices are expected to be volatile and strong. Consider long - position layouts on dips [4]