坚定的力量，贵金属夜盘刷新高点

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Variety | Cautiously Bearish (Possibility) | Cautiously Bullish (Possibility) | | --- | --- | --- | | Stock Index (IH) | | √ | | Stock Index (IF) | | √ | | Stock Index (IC) | | √ | | Stock Index (IN) | | √ | | Crude Oil | √ | | | | √ | | | Rubber | | √ | | Rebar | √ | | | Hot Rolled Coil | -1 | | | Iron Ore | √ | | | Gold | | √ | | Silver | | √ | | Aluminum | | √ | | Lithium Carbonate | | √ | | Apple | √ | | | Corn | | √ | | Container Shipping to Europe | -1 | | [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend in 2026, driven by factors such as technology cycle resonance, policy dividends, economic recovery, and overseas capital inflows [11]. - The long - term upward trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors are advised to buy on dips during short - term adjustments [3][20]. - Short - term rubber prices are expected to remain strong [2][16]. - The crude oil market is under pressure due to factors such as the possible resumption of diplomatic communication between the US and Iran and the improvement of the situation in Venezuela [2][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Main News Concerns on the Day International News - The final annualized quarterly GDP growth rate of the US in Q3 2025 was 4.4%, higher than the initial value of 4.3%, reaching the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. The core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [6]. Domestic News - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on January 23. After deducting the 200 billion yuan of matured MLF in January, the net injection through MLF operations is 700 billion yuan [7]. Industry News - The sales revenue of China's intelligent equipment manufacturing industry in 2025 increased by 28.1% year - on - year, with industrial robots and special operation robots manufacturing growing by 17.4% and 42.1% respectively [8]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 index rose 0.55%, the European STOXX 50 index rose 0.87%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.35%, the US dollar index fell 0.50%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.41%, London gold rose 2.18%, London silver rose 3.33%, LME aluminum rose 0.72%, LME copper rose 0.23%, LME zinc rose 1.83%, LME nickel rose 0.58%, ICE No. 11 sugar rose 1.29%, ICE No. 2 cotton fell 0.61%, CBOT soybeans fell 0.09%, CBOT soybean meal rose 1.61%, CBOT lean hogs fell 0.57%, CBOT wheat rose 1.48%, and CBOT corn rose 0.53% [10]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - Stock Index: The stock market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend in 2026, driven by multiple factors. The market is shifting from valuation expansion to profit - driven [11]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized. The central bank's monetary policy and fiscal policy in 2026 will continue to be moderately loose, with room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: SC crude oil fell 2.17% at night. Diplomatic communication may resume between the US and Iran, and the situation in Venezuela has improved [2][14]. - Methanol: Methanol rose 1.46% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants decreased slightly, and coastal methanol inventories increased slightly [15]. - Natural Rubber: Natural rubber continued to rebound on Thursday, driven by the strong performance of synthetic rubber. Short - term prices are expected to remain strong [2][16]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefin futures rebounded. The market focuses on supply improvement and macro factors [17]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. Glass supply and demand are gradually improving, while soda ash still faces inventory digestion pressure [18]. Metals - Precious Metals: Precious metals rebounded, with international gold and silver hitting new highs. The long - term upward trend is expected to continue, and short - term dips are buying opportunities [3][20]. - Copper: Copper prices fell 0.43% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and copper prices may experience a phased correction [21]. - Zinc: Zinc prices rose 0.53% at night. The supply of concentrates is temporarily tight, and zinc prices may correct after the release of the optimistic sentiment in the non - ferrous market [22]. - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum rose 0.21% at night. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the long - term low inventory and supply restrictions provide support [23]. - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuates greatly. The price is likely to rise rather than fall under the current demand logic [24][25]. Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke: The main contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated at night. The short - term decline of the futures price is limited, and attention should be paid to supply, iron production, and restocking [26]. - Steel: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival, with weak supply and demand and narrowing inventory decline [27]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore prices oscillated and rebounded. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner [28]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: Bean and rapeseed meal oscillated strongly at night. The harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans is accelerating, and domestic prices are under pressure from high inventory and expected high yield in South America [29]. - Edible Oils: Edible oils oscillated and adjusted at night. The prices of palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be strong in the short term [30]. - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar's main contract remained at a low level. The short - term price is expected to remain low due to seasonal supply pressure [31][32]. - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton's main contract oscillated strongly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and there are opportunities to buy on dips [33]. Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: EC rose 0.58%. The freight rate is expected to decline rapidly before the Spring Festival, but the market is not very pessimistic about the April freight rate [34].