中下游补库进度慢，玉米表现坚挺

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Globally, the corn supply - demand situation in 2025/26 is generally loose, with increased production in the US and Ukraine, and stable high - level production in South American countries [1][33] - In China, corn production increased significantly in 2025/26, but the poor quality of North China corn shifted demand to Northeast corn. The slowdown in grain sales since December leaves sufficient grassroots surplus grain, posing pressure in spring [1][33] - Corn and substitute grain imports have a limited impact on domestic supply. In the demand side, the feed demand has short - term resilience but future production capacity will shrink; deep - processing consumption is not strong [1][33] - The low - inventory state of the corn market still supports prices, but the effect is weakening. Future focus should be on grain sales rhythm and policy trends, and the operation idea is mainly range - bound [1][34] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since January, the domestic corn spot market has been oscillating strongly. Northern ports' spot prices rose slightly due to low inventory. Futures were slightly stronger than spot, but then turned to an oscillating pattern due to downstream concerns and policy auctions [3] 3.2 International Corn Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Corn Supply Increase - In 2025/26, the US corn harvest area was 36.93 million hectares, with a yield of 11.71 tons per hectare, and a total output of 432 million tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio rose to 13.6%, and supply increased by 7 million tons compared to December's estimate. Export sales also increased significantly [6] 3.2.2 Stable High - level Production in South America - In 2025/26, Brazil's corn production was estimated to be around 131 - 139 million tons, and Argentina's was estimated to be 53 million tons. The production in both countries was generally stable, and the possibility of high - yield realization was high [10] 3.2.3 Recovery - type Production Increase in Ukraine - In 2025/26, Ukraine's corn production was estimated to be 29 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons compared to the previous year. However, the production increase was less than expected due to adverse weather [12] 3.3 Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.3.1 Slowdown in Grain Sales and Sufficient Grassroots Surplus Grain - In 2025/26, China's corn production reached 301 million tons. The poor quality of North China corn restricted sales progress, while Northeast corn had a faster sales rate. As of January 15, the national grain sales progress was the same as the previous year, but the surplus grain was still sufficient due to increased production [16] 3.3.2 Poor Feed Consumption Expectations, Stable Deep - processing Consumption Year - on - Year - In 2026, due to low or negative profits in the pig and egg - laying chicken breeding industries, livestock and poultry inventory is expected to decline, and feed consumption will weaken. In deep - processing, starch processing profits are poor, and alcohol processing consumption has weakened [20][21] 3.3.3 Reduced Substitution of Imported Grains and Wheat for Domestic Corn - Since 2025/26, the price difference between wheat and corn has been high, increasing corn's cost - effectiveness in feed. With the stable increase in domestic corn production, the demand for imported substitute grains has decreased [24] 3.3.4 Inventory Recovery in Downstream Enterprises with Limited Motivation for Further Increase - Northern port inventories have declined since late December, and Guangdong's grain inventory is still low. The raw material inventory of North China's deep - processing enterprises has increased rapidly, while that of Northeast enterprises is still low. Feed and deep - processing enterprises have limited motivation to further increase inventory [30]