国投期货农产品日报-20260123

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Buy: Soybean No.1, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Live Hogs, Eggs [1] Core Views - The prices of domestic soybean futures have rebounded from their lows and are accompanied by an increase in positions. Pay continuous attention to the guidance from the policy and spot markets [2] - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal today opened higher and moved lower, with a weakening trend. The expected high - yield in South America has returned as the main trading logic, but the harvest progress of new - season Brazilian soybeans has been slow due to weather. In China, the procurement of soybeans for February and March shipments has exceeded 90%, and that for April shipments has exceeded 40%. Pay attention to the harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the impact of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports [3] - The strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit and investors' profit - taking have led to a decline in the price of Malaysian crude palm oil, and domestic palm oil has also been driven down. The US biomass diesel policy is bullish, and it is expected that the overall demand for US biomass fuel will increase year - on - year in the 26/27 market year. Pay attention to the impact of Indonesian policies and the supply - demand structure of Malaysian palm oil [4] - The rapeseed system has declined slightly today. Canadian rapeseed supply is relatively abundant, but exports are sluggish. It is expected that the rapeseed system will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [6] - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and the northern ports have remained stable, with sporadic price cuts by some deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China. Some deep - processing enterprises in Shandong have raised the purchase price. Corn supply is relatively sufficient this year, but prices are relatively strong due to reduced available grain sources and pre - holiday restocking demand. The Dalian corn futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term [7] - The live hog futures have adjusted narrowly, and the spot market shows a pattern of strong in the north and weak in the south. Before the Spring Festival, there will be a situation of both strong supply and demand, but after the Spring Festival, prices are expected to be weak. In the long - term, the industry still needs to reduce production capacity [8] - The spot prices of eggs have generally increased across the country, while the futures have basically given back yesterday's gains. The Spring Festival stocking and the decline in supply have driven up spot prices. In the long - term, the fundamentals of eggs are gradually improving, and a long - position strategy on dips is recommended [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean No.1 - The main contract price of domestic soybeans has rebounded from the low, and the trading volume on Friday was 38,114 tons, all of which were sold at a base price of 3,950 yuan/ton and an average price of 3,950 yuan/ton, the same as Wednesday [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal opened higher and moved lower. The expected high - yield in South America is the main logic, but the Brazilian soybean harvest is slow. China has completed over 90% of February and March soybean shipments procurement and over 40% of April shipments. Pay attention to the Brazilian soybean harvest and the impact of Canadian imports [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit and profit - taking have led to a decline in Malaysian palm oil prices, and domestic palm oil has also adjusted. The US biomass diesel policy is bullish, and it is expected that US soybean and soybean oil prices will be strong, which will also drive palm oil. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and the supply - demand structure of Malaysian palm oil [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed system has declined slightly, with Canadian rapeseed supply abundant but exports sluggish. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] Corn - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and the northern ports are stable, with some price cuts in Northeast China and price increases in Shandong. Corn supply is sufficient this year, but prices are strong due to reduced available grain and pre - holiday restocking. The Dalian corn futures will fluctuate in the short term [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures have adjusted narrowly, and the spot market is strong in the north and weak in the south. There will be a situation of both strong supply and demand before the Spring Festival, but prices will be weak after. The industry still needs to reduce production capacity [8] Eggs - The spot prices of eggs have generally increased, while the futures have given back yesterday's gains. Spring Festival stocking and supply decline have driven up spot prices. In the long - term, the fundamentals are improving, and a long - position strategy on dips is recommended [9]