【冠通期货研究报告】甲醇日报：静待库存拐点-20260123

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The futures price of methanol continues to rebound and should be treated as strong, but beware of corrections. There is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. It is recommended to continue to focus on the idea of buying after a decline, but the upside space will also be restricted by downstream demand. Currently, methanol is in a low - valuation state, prone to low - level rebound行情. Pay attention to the emotional changes due to recent macro news [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 21, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 43.83 tons, a decrease of 1.25 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.78%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 23.83 tons, a slight increase of 0.05 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%. The total port inventory was 145.75 tons, an increase of 2.22 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 1.36 tons, while that in South China increased by 3.58 tons. There was a slight accumulation of port inventory, with 19.80 tons of visible foreign vessel unloading during the period, and two vessels being unloaded were not included. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 86.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38%. The Zhejiang Xingxing MTO plant stopped production, and some enterprises were still operating at a reduced load, causing the industry's operating rate to continue to decline passively [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will research, formulate and introduce an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 - 2030. Multiple departments including the Ministry of Finance will implement a loan interest subsidy policy for small, medium and micro enterprises, set up a special guarantee plan quota of 500 billion yuan for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extend the implementation period of the fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumer loans to the end of 2026. In 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market and expectations [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The methanol futures continued to rebound, breaking through the 2300 mark during the day. Further, pay attention to the pressure of the 60 - day moving average on the weekly K - line level. Treat it as strong, but beware of corrections. There is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter, and continue to focus on the idea of buying after a decline. However, the upside space will be restricted by downstream demand. Currently, methanol is in a low - valuation state and is prone to low - level rebound行情. Pay attention to the emotional changes due to recent macro news [3]