国投期货软商品日报-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★☆ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The domestic cotton market shows a situation of strong supply and demand. The recent trend of Zhengzhou cotton may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production in Brazil is coming to an end, and the market focuses on the output forecast for the next season. The production and sales progress of domestic sugar is slow, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - The futures price of apples fluctuates. The market trading logic turns to demand. The de - stocking speed may be affected, and a bearish operation is maintained [4]. - The price of butadiene rubber futures continued to rise, and the prices of natural rubber and 20 - rubber futures followed suit. The supply of rubber decreases, inventory increases, and the strategy is a strong rebound [6]. - The pulp futures rose slightly. The short - term fundamentals are average due to weak downstream demand. It is recommended to try to go long with a light position, and the short - term trend is still range - bound [7]. - The futures price of logs fluctuates. Low inventory provides some support for prices, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined slightly today and was volatile this week. The spot transaction of cotton was average, and the basis was stable and slightly stronger [2]. - As of January 15th, the cumulative processed lint cotton was 7.128 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 631,000 tons. The cumulative sales of lint cotton were 4.409 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.046 million tons [2]. - China imported 180,000 tons of cotton in December, a year - on - year increase of 44,100 tons. The total import volume is expected to be difficult to increase [2]. - Spinning mills' demand for raw materials is still resilient, but downstream orders are average. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazil's production is ending, and the market focuses on the next season's output forecast. Rainfall in the central - southern region is a concern [3]. - The sugar - alcohol price ratio has dropped significantly, and the sugar - making ratio in the next season is expected to decline, reducing Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season [3]. - The production and sales progress of domestic sugar is slow. The weak sales are due to strong bearish sentiment in the market. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Apple - The futures price is volatile, and the spot price is stable. During the Spring Festival stocking period, the purchase of fruit farmers' goods is small [4]. - As of January 22nd, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 6.3232 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [4]. - The market trading logic turns to demand. The high acquisition price and strong reluctance to sell may affect the de - stocking speed. A bearish operation is maintained [4]. 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - The price of butadiene rubber futures continued to rise, and the prices of natural rubber and 20 - rubber futures followed suit. The market sentiment of energy - chemical products is optimistic [6]. - The global natural rubber supply enters the production - reduction period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate decreased slightly this week [6]. - The domestic full - steel tire operating rate declined slightly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate continued to rise significantly. The inventory of Shandong tire enterprises increased [6]. - The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 584,900 tons, and the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 15,600 tons [6]. - The strategy is a strong rebound [6]. Pulp - The pulp futures rose slightly. The short - term fundamentals are average due to weak downstream demand [7]. - As of January 22nd, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.068 million tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous period [7]. - The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp is narrowing, and the prices of foreign softwood and hardwood pulp have increased [7]. - Paper mills purchase pulp mainly for rigid demand. It is recommended to try to go long with a light position, and the short - term trend is range - bound [7]. Timber - The futures price fluctuates, and the spot price is stable. The foreign price is lowered, and the domestic price is weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease [8]. - As of January 16th, the average daily outbound volume of 13 national ports was 61,600 cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 33.33% [8]. - As of January 16th, the national port log inventory was 257,000 cubic meters, a 4.46% decrease from the previous period. Low inventory provides support, and it is recommended to wait and see [8].