油粕日报：南美大豆丰产预期加强-20260123

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near - term supply of soybean meal still has a certain gap, but the probability of an extreme shortage situation like last year is relatively small. Near - term soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts strengthen slightly due to the accelerated implementation of the US biofuel policy. The US biofuel policy may weaken the surplus of US soybeans to some extent but cannot provide long - term upward drive. The pressure brought by the bumper harvest of South American soybeans remains large. It is recommended that those with large spot positions consider using price fluctuations to wash the basis, and the market is slightly bearish on the futures price [2]. - After the previous rise, the price increase of the oil sector restricts demand to some extent. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the US biofuel policy in early March, which may bring additional upward drive to the oil sector [2]. Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - The Brazilian Soybean Crushers Association (ABIOVE) expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach 177.124 million tons, compared with 171.481 million tons in the previous season. Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 are expected to reach 111.5 million tons, up from 108.2 million tons in 2025. Brazil's soybean crushing volume in 2026 is expected to reach a record 61 million tons, higher than 58.5 million tons in 2025. The ending inventory of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 9.195 million tons, compared with 7.071 million tons in the previous season [1]. - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that private exporters reported the sale of 192,350 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. The US soybean marketing year starts on September 1 [1]. Oil - The Speaker of the US House of Representatives is discussing whether to include a clause allowing the year - round sale of E15 ethanol - gasoline in a supplementary spending bill being promoted by the Senate to help farmers cope with tariff impacts, or pass a separate House bill in the next few weeks [2]. - According to data from the Canadian Grain Commission, as of the week ending January 18, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 155.95% from the previous week to 288,200 tons, compared with 112,600 tons in the previous week. As of January 18, Canada's rapeseed exports in the 2025 - 26 season were 3.2097 million tons, a 37.42% decrease from 5.1293 million tons in the same period of the previous season [2].