能源转型下虚拟电厂的崛起

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for virtual power plants, emphasizing their essential role in the new power system and potential for significant returns as technology matures and market mechanisms improve [2][27]. Core Insights - Virtual power plants (VPPs) are defined as intelligent power operation models that aggregate distributed resources to optimize power system operations and market transactions [4]. - The development of VPPs in China has progressed through three phases: exploration and initiation (2015-2020), policy construction and large-scale exploration (2021-2024), and market-oriented development (from 2025 onwards) [6][7]. - The report highlights the critical value of VPPs in enhancing system stability at lower costs compared to traditional power generation methods, improving renewable energy consumption, and supporting carbon reduction goals [13][27]. Summary by Sections Definition and Development of Virtual Power Plants - VPPs are not physical power plants but rather a smart organization model that integrates various distributed energy resources [4]. - The development stages of VPPs include initial exploration, policy support, and a shift towards market-oriented operations with clear targets set for 2027 and 2030 [6][7]. Core Value of Virtual Power Plants - VPPs can significantly reduce costs associated with system stability, with an estimated investment of 500-600 billion yuan compared to 4000 billion yuan for traditional methods [13]. - They enhance the consumption of renewable energy by optimizing load timing and collaborating with storage systems to mitigate waste [13]. - VPPs are pivotal in transitioning the market from supply-side dominance to a more interactive supply-demand model, increasing profitability for participants [13]. Operational Models and Market Mechanisms - The operational models of VPPs in China are diverse, including demand response aggregation, auxiliary services, and participation in spot markets [19][20]. - The report emphasizes the need for improved market mechanisms and compensation standards to fully realize the value of user-side resources [26]. Financial Projections and Profitability - A simplified model for a 100 MW VPP project estimates annual revenues of approximately 12.15 million yuan, with a payback period of 6-8 years and an internal rate of return of 9-11% [23][24]. - The profitability of VPPs is highly dependent on market activity and regulatory support, with a significant reliance on demand response subsidies [20][22]. Challenges and Recommendations - The report identifies technological innovation and market mechanism improvements as key drivers for the scalable development of VPPs [25]. - Recommendations include advancing critical technologies, establishing unified standards, and enhancing market participation pathways for VPPs [26].