23申万期货品种策略日报：双焦(J&J)-20260123

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Night trading of the main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a volatile trend yesterday, with the total position of coking coal remaining basically unchanged. Steel Union data indicated that the production of five major steel products remained basically unchanged this week, but the total inventory increased, mainly contributed by rebar, and the overall apparent demand decreased. The iron - making water production and the profit rate of steel mills remained basically unchanged. The seasonal increase in the downstream's pre - holiday rigid demand for replenishment can support coal prices, so it is judged that the short - term decline of the disk is limited. Future focus should be on the supply trend of coking coal, changes in iron - making water production, and the downstream replenishment rhythm [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Price and Trading Volume - For coking coal futures, the closing prices of the January, May, and September contracts on the previous day were 1367.0, 1131.5, and 1203.0 respectively, with price changes of 0.5, 2.5, and 0.0 and price change rates of 0.04%, 0.22%, and 0.00% respectively. The trading volumes were 101472, 736188, and 28258 respectively, and the positions were 3706, 521061, and 80299 respectively, with position changes of 380, 5617, and 1225 respectively [3] - For coke futures, the closing prices of the January, May, and September contracts on the previous day were 1863.0, 1688.0, and 1758.0 respectively, with price changes of - 9.0, 4.5, and - 0.5 and price change rates of - 0.48%, 0.27%, and - 0.03% respectively. The trading volumes were 63, 12490, and 523 respectively, and the positions were 122, 38116, and 1531 respectively, with position changes of 40, - 242, and 93 respectively [3] Futures Spread - For coking coal, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are 240, - 79.5, and - 160.5 respectively, with spread changes of 306, 2.5, and - 308.5 respectively [3] - For coke, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are 160.5, - 77.5, and - 83 respectively, with spread changes of 429.5, 2, and - 431.5 respectively [3] Spot Price - The current prices of Mongolian 5 main coking coal, low - sulfur main coking coal (Linfen), low - sulfur main coking coal (Taiyuan), Tangshan first - grade coke, Jinzhong quasi - first - grade coke, and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke are 1234, 1640, 1530, 1800, 1280, and 1450 respectively, and the spot price changes are all 0 [3] Policy Information - People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that in 2026, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, and multiple monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity, so that the growth of social financing scale and money supply matches the expected targets of economic growth and price levels. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The central bank will also do a good job in the implementation and supervision of interest rate policies to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost [3]