【冠通期货研究报告】塑料日报：震荡上行-20260123

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On January 23, the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, at a moderately high level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points week-on-week to 39.53%, still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price dropped. New production capacity was put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate decreased slightly. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, and plastic will fluctuate in a range. The L-PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 23, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points week-on-week to 39.53%. The agricultural film orders were basically stable, and the raw material inventory was basically stable. The packaging film orders increased slightly. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price dropped due to increased inventory. New production capacity was put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate decreased slightly. The concentrated demand for mulch film has not started, and the terminal demand has decreased. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, and plastic will fluctuate in a range. The L-PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward, with a closing price of 6865 yuan/ton, a gain of 1.87%. The position increased by 3532 lots to 519056 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PE spot markets rose, with a price change range of -0 to +150 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6720 - 6970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8600 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6860 - 8140 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 23, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, at a moderately high level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 23, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points week-on-week to 39.53%, still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. The agricultural film orders were basically stable, and the raw material inventory was basically stable. The packaging film orders increased slightly [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons week-on-week to 500,000 tons, 35,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January, but average recently. The current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $65/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week-on-week at $710/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week-on-week at $690/ton [4].