【冠通期货研究报告】PP日报：震荡上行-20260123

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to fluctuate within a range as the improvement in the supply - demand pattern is limited, downstream order cycles are shortened, and downstream product profits are shrinking. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to new plastic production capacity and the non - start of concentrated demand for mulch films [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 23, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.34 percentage points to 52.87% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving industry of the main drawstring decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 42.04% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On January 23, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 80%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 28% [1][4] - Petrochemicals had good inventory reduction in the first and middle ten - days of January, but the recent inventory reduction was average. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, the US Energy Secretary called for more than doubling global oil production, US crude oil inventories increased more than expected, and gasoline inventories also continued to increase more than expected. Overall oil product inventories continued to rise, and crude oil prices fell [1] - In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of recent maintenance devices decreased slightly. The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound, but as the Spring Festival holiday approached, the operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving industry continued to decline, and new orders were limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,584 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,687 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,656 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.48%. The position increased by 12,150 lots to 498,932 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions rose. The drawstring was reported at 6,250 - 6,730 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 23, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 80%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 28% [4] - Demand: As of the week of January 23, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.34 percentage points to 52.87% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving industry of the main drawstring decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 42.04% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: Petrochemical morning inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons to 500,000 tons week - on - week, 35,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemicals had good inventory reduction in the first and middle ten - days of January, but the recent inventory reduction was average. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $65/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $15/ton to $800/ton week - on - week [4]