【冠通期货研究报告】焦炭日报：短期延续反弹-20260123

Group 1 - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke industry is not mentioned in the report [1][2][3] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that the overall supply - demand situation of coke is weak during the seasonal inventory accumulation period. However, with the relatively stable iron - water output of downstream steel mills, the increasing loss of coking enterprises, strong willingness of coking enterprises to raise prices, and the overall warm macro - environment, the coke market will continue to rebound in the short term, and a low - buying strategy should be adopted [2] Group 3 Market Analysis of Coke - As of January 23, affected by the expanding losses, the production enthusiasm of some small and medium - sized enterprises declined. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased by 0.36 tons to 81.45 tons, while the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 15.14 tons to 1012.35 tons, with a year - on - year decline close to 4% [1] - The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 66 yuan/ton; the average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi is - 51 yuan/ton, in Shandong is - 8 yuan/ton, the average profit of second - grade coke in Inner Mongolia is - 103 yuan/ton, and the average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Hebei is - 11 yuan/ton [1] - Terminal demand maintains the characteristics of the off - season. Although the profit of steel mills has rebounded slightly, the overall enthusiasm for resumption of production on the supply side is still limited. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills this week decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 78.68%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The profitability rate increased by 0.86 percentage points to 40.69% compared with last week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate slightly rebounded to 85.51%, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.09 tons to 228.1 tons, an increase of 2.65 tons compared with last year [1] Market Analysis of Upstream Coking Coal - This week, the coking coal inventory of coal mines rebounded slightly. The total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 1177.71 tons, the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased to 803.24 tons, and the inventory of imported coking coal at ports continued to increase to 562.99 tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased to 2818.34 tons, still 15.87% lower than the same period last year [2] News - Pan Gongsheng stated that in 2026, China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is still some room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [2] - According to Yicai, intensive policy deployments are being carried out for the in - depth construction of a unified national market and the in - depth rectification of "involution - style" competition [2]