【冠通期货研究报告】纯碱日报：短期震荡-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "short - term shock", indicating a volatile trend in the short term [1]. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the soda ash production capacity utilization rate remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is increasing. There is an expectation of cold - repair of glass production lines near the end of the month, which may further weaken the rigid demand for soda ash. Although the anti - involution news has strengthened market sentiment and led to a short - term rebound in the market, in the medium - to - long - term, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. Despite high exports alleviating some pressure, the high inventory still restricts price rebound. The short - term price is likely to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the return of the market to the weak fundamentals after the sentiment fades. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 (Market Review) - Futures Market: The main soda ash futures contract strengthened with fluctuations during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks contracted, indicating a short - term shock signal. The intraday resistance was near the 60 - day moving average, and the short - term support was near the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 77,654 lots compared to the previous day, while the open interest decreased by 17,937 lots. The intraday high was 1200, the low was 1178, and the closing price was 1198, up 24 yuan/ton or 2.04% from the previous settlement price [1]. - Spot Market: The spot market was slightly stable with fluctuations. The enterprise equipment had a narrow - range fluctuation, and Jiangsu Huachang had a short - term shutdown. The supply was adjusted at a high level. Downstream demand was mediocre, with poor purchasing enthusiasm, and buyers mainly replenished inventory at low prices [1]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 52 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 22, the domestic soda ash output was 771,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3600 tons or 0.46%. The light soda ash output was 358,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2700 tons, and the heavy soda ash output was 412,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.42%, down 0.40 percentage points from the previous week. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 87.69%, down 2.27 percentage points, and the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 77.99%, down 0.89 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 89.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.42% [2]. - Inventory: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5212 million tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons or 1.49% from Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 82,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1900 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,900 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it decreased by 53,800 tons or 3.42%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory decreased by 12,500 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory decreased by 41,300 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9170 tons or 6.41% [2]. - Demand: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 825,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%. The overall shipment rate was 106.98%, a month - on - month increase of 7.27%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, with poor purchasing enthusiasm. Buyers mainly consumed inventory and made low - price rigid - demand purchases [3]. - Profit: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit of the co - production method (double - ton) was - 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 96.3 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous month. During the week, the raw material salt price was stable, and the thermal coal price fluctuated downward, resulting in a slight decline in costs [3]. Main Logic Summary - The soda ash production capacity utilization rate remains high, and new production capacity is gradually being released, leading to an increase in overall output. There is a cold - repair expectation for glass production lines near the end of the month, which may further weaken the rigid demand for soda ash. Although the anti - involution news has strengthened market sentiment and caused a short - term rebound in the market, in the medium - to - long - term, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. High exports alleviate some pressure, but the high inventory still restricts price rebound. The short - term price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the return of the market to the weak fundamentals after the sentiment fades. It is necessary to continue to monitor downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4].