玉米现货稳定，盘面偏强震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn supply is abundant. In the short - term, the US corn 03 contract will fluctuate around 420 cents per bushel. Currently, corn in Northeast China is gradually coming to market, and the supply in North China is also increasing. There will still be a peak of grain sales at the end of January. The rebound of corn spot is limited, and corn will be relatively stable before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, corn is relatively stable, the futures price is at par with the spot price, and the rebound space of 03 corn is limited. Starch will also be relatively stable [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Corn: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased the yield per unit and area of US corn in January. This week, US corn fluctuated narrowly, digesting the negative news. It is expected that the 03 contract of US corn will fluctuate around 420 cents per bushel. The import profit of US and Brazilian corn is high. Currently, farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, and the supply of corn has increased, but the port inventory is still low, and the port price is strong. It is expected that the spot will be relatively stable before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, the supply of corn in Northeast China has increased, but the downstream has replenished inventory due to rigid demand, and the port inventory is still low, so the price of Northeast corn has risen slightly. The supply of corn in North China has increased, and the spot price is relatively stable. The price difference between wheat and corn in North China is still at a high level, and it is expected that the supply of corn will continue to increase next week. It is expected that the supply in the northern port will increase in the short - term, and the purchase price will be relatively stable. The 03 corn will fluctuate at a high level [4]. - Starch: The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 has increased, and the starch inventory has decreased, but it is still high. The spot price of corn has risen, and the downstream is still stocking up recently, so the spot price of starch has also risen. The profit of starch factories in North China is relatively stable. In the later stage, the operating rate of starch enterprises will still increase. With the large - scale listing of new corn, the spot price of starch will be relatively stable. It is expected that the 03 corn starch will follow the high - level fluctuation of corn [4]. - Trading Strategies: - One - sided: Try to buy US corn 03 below 420 cents per bushel. Try to short 03 corn above 2300 [5]. - Arbitrage: Carry out a reverse spread of 3 - 5 starch [5]. - Options: Adopt a strategy of accumulating put options for 03 corn at high prices [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International - US Corn - Yield Increase and Bottom - Level Fluctuation: In January, the USDA's report increased the yield per unit and area of US corn. The yield per unit was increased from 186 bushels per acre to 186.5 bushels per acre. This week, US corn fluctuated at the bottom, and the 03 contract fluctuated around 420 cents per bushel. China has lowered tariffs on US agricultural products. The import tariff of US corn is 11%, and that of US sorghum is 12%. Calculated at an 11% tariff, the import cost of US corn in February is around 2170 yuan per ton, with good import profit. As of January 22, the price at Guangdong Port is 2450 yuan per ton, and the cost of Brazilian corn arriving in March is 2127 yuan per ton, with an import profit of 323 yuan per ton [9]. - Non - commercial Net Short Position Increase and Ethanol Production Increase: As of January 13, the non - commercial net short position of US corn was 33,000 lots, and the net short position increased. The ethanol production in the United States increased significantly. The 03 contract of US corn fluctuated at the bottom, around 420 cents per bushel [15]. 3.2.2 Domestic - Deep - processing and Feed Enterprises: The corn inventory of feed enterprises has increased but is less than the same period last year. As of January 22, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed factories was 31.32 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 days, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. The consumption of deep - processing enterprises has increased. From January 15 to January 21, 2026, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises in the country consumed 1381,500 tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 25,600 tons. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has risen, and it is expected to continue to increase next week. As of January 14, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 3.838 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.4% [19][20]. - Port Inventory: The corn inventory in the northern ports has increased, and the grain inventory in the southern ports has decreased. As of January 16, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.497 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 million tons. The shipping volume of the four ports that week was 389,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 306,000 tons. The domestic trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 478,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,000 tons; the foreign trade inventory was 219,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons; the imported sorghum was 61,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22,000 tons; the imported barley was 694,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,000 tons; the total grain inventory was 1.452 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 46,000 tons [23]. - Grain Sales Progress: The grain sales progress has accelerated. The overall sales progress of 13 provinces was 56%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The sales progress of 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) was 54%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and the same as the same period last year [27]. - Starch: The operating rate of deep - processing has increased. From January 15 to January 21, the national corn processing volume was 635,500 tons, and the starch output was 330,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,400 tons. The operating rate was 60.46%, a week - on - week increase of 2.81%. The spot price of corn in North China has stabilized, the spot price of starch has risen, the by - product price has been stable, and the enterprise profit has decreased. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was - 89 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan, and the profit in Shandong was 14 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan. The downstream提货 volume has decreased, the operating rate has declined, and the starch inventory has decreased. It is expected that the starch inventory will rise next week. As of January 21, the corn starch inventory this week was 1.069 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons, a decrease of 2.8%, a monthly decrease of 3.0%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [31]. - Substitutes - Wheat: The arrival price of wheat in North China is basically 2500 yuan per ton, and the price is stable. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. Corn in North China and Northeast China is strong, and the price difference between North China and Northeast corn is low [37]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - Livestock and Poultry Breeding: From January 16 to January 22, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 116 yuan per head, a week - on - week increase of 52 yuan per head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was 38 yuan per head, a week - on - week increase of 77 yuan per head. From January 15 to January 21, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers was 0.36 yuan per chicken, compared with 0.93 yuan per chicken last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost this week was 3.54 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was 0.13 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.18 yuan per catty last week [46][53]. - Deep - processing - Corn Starch Downstream Consumption: This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup was 71.58%, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 66.15%, a week - on - week increase of 3.68%. The operating rate of corrugated paper was 65.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.85%, and the operating rate of boxboard paper was 67.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7% [56].