黑色系周度报告-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term: The steel market maintains a weak balance between supply and demand, with limited inventory pressure, but weak real - estate data drags down demand. Iron ore overseas supply continues to shrink, and the inventory is transferred from ports to steel mills. The long - term prices of steel and iron ore are under pressure. The glass market has a weak fundamental pattern, and the long - term price is also under pressure. The soda ash supply - demand fundamentals are weak, with high supply and inventory accumulation [78][82] - Short - term: Rebar and iron ore show a short - term oscillating trend. Glass and soda ash may rebound with macro - sentiment in the short term, and cautious operation is recommended [79][83] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black - series Weekly Market Review - Futures Prices: From January 16 to January 23, 2026, the closing prices of most black - series futures contracts decreased. For example, the RB2605 rebar contract decreased from 3163 to 3142, a decrease of 21 with a decline rate of 1%. The HC2605 hot - rolled coil contract decreased from 3315 to 3305, a decrease of 10 with a decline rate of 0%. The I2605 iron ore contract decreased from 812 to 795, a decrease of 17 with a decline rate of 2%. The J2605 coke contract increased from 1717 to 1722, an increase of 5 with an increase rate of 0%. The JM2605 coking coal contract decreased from 1171 to 1157, a decrease of 14 with a decline rate of 1%. The FG605 glass contract decreased from 1103 to 1064, a decrease of 39 with a decline rate of 4%. The SA605 soda ash contract increased from 1192 to 1198, an increase of 6 with an increase rate of 1% [3] - Spot Prices and Basis: The spot prices and basis of each variety are also provided. For example, the rebar spot price is 3270, and the basis is 128; the hot - rolled coil spot price is 3290, and the basis is - 15 [3] - Blast Furnace Profit: On January 22, the rebar blast furnace profit was reported at 65 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Rebar - Supply Side: As of January 23, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate was 78.68%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 228.1 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons; the rebar output was 199.55 tons, an increase of 9.25 tons [13] - Demand Side: In the week of January 23, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 185.52 tons, a decrease of 4.82 tons compared with the previous week. As of January 22, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 71531 tons [19] - Inventory: In the week of January 23, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 303.12 tons, an increase of 7.71 tons compared with the previous week; the in - plant inventory was reported at 148.98 tons, an increase of 6.32 tons compared with the previous week [24] 3.3 Iron Ore - Supply Side: In the week of January 16, the global iron ore shipment volume was reported at 2929.9 tons, a decrease of 251 tons compared with the previous week; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was reported at 2897.7 tons, a decrease of 117.3 tons compared with the previous week [29] - Inventory: In the week of January 23, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 17496.53 tons, an increase of 207.83 tons compared with the previous week; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was reported at 9388.82 tons, an increase of 126.6 tons compared with the previous week [34] - Demand Side: In the week of January 23, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 320.5 tons, a decrease of 14.5 tons compared with the previous week. As of January 22, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was reported at 91.3 tons [39] 3.4 Float Glass - Supply Side: In the week of January 23, the number of operating float glass production lines was reported at 212, the same as the previous week; the weekly output was reported at 1055215 tons, an increase of 2900 tons compared with the previous week. As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of float glass was reported at 75.57%, and the operating rate was reported at 71.62% [44] - Inventory: In the week of January 23, the in - plant inventory of float glass was reported at 5321.58 million weight - boxes, an increase of 20.28 million weight - boxes compared with the previous week; the available days of in - plant inventory were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.1 days compared with the previous week [49] - Demand Side: In the week of January 16, the number of days of deep - processing orders from glass downstream manufacturers was 9.3 days [53] - Production Profit: In the week of January 23, the production gross profit of the float process using coal as fuel was - 65.11 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.9 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the production gross profit using petroleum coke as fuel was - 778 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the production gross profit using natural gas as fuel was - 158.69 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.71 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [57] 3.5 Soda Ash - Supply Side: In the week of January 23, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was reported at 86.42%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared with the previous week; the output was reported at 77.17 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons compared with the previous week [60] - Inventory: As of January 23, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was reported at 152.12 tons, a decrease of 5.38 tons compared with the previous week [65] - Sales - to - Production Ratio: As of January 23, the sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was reported at 106.98%, an increase of 7.28 percentage points compared with the previous week [70] - Enterprise Profit: As of January 22, the profit of ammonia - soda enterprises was reported at - 23 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the profit of combined - soda enterprises was reported at - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [74]