【冠通期货研究报告】热卷日报：震荡偏强-20260123

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot - rolled coil industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] Group 2: Core View - Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coils is contracting, while the demand is resilient. The overall supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pre - holiday winter stockpiling supports the current demand, the social inventory is decreasing month - on - month, and the factory inventory pressure is controllable. The overall inventory risk is gradually improving, but it is still relatively high year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post - holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. The supply - demand tight balance and inventory reduction support the price. In the future, attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post - holiday demand recovery. Technically, it has stood firm on the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages, and it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term, maintaining a bullish view [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The hot - rolled coil futures main contract increased its open interest by 33,977 lots on Friday, with a trading volume of 304,877 lots. Compared with the previous trading day, the volume increased. The intraday low was 3,283 yuan, and the high was 3,310 yuan. It oscillated with an upward bias during the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it stood above the 5 - day and 30 - day moving averages. If it stands firm, the probability of continued strength in the short and medium - term is relatively high. It closed at 3,305 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan, or 0.52% [1] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot is - 15 yuan, and the futures are slightly at a premium to the spot [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month - on - month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year - on - year. The output decline reflects that the steel mill's production capacity release has converged, which may be affected by factors such as maintenance arrangements and profit fluctuations, and supports the price [3] - Demand: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month - on - month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year - on - year. The demand decreased slightly month - on - month but maintained growth year - on - year. Pre - holiday stockpiling supported the demand, and the overall demand was resilient [3] - Inventory: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons month - on - month to 3.5778 million tons (the social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons month - on - month, and the steel mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons). It increased by 212,700 tons year - on - year (the social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year - on - year, and the factory inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year - on - year). The total inventory decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The year - on - year increase reflects that the inventory accumulation speed this year is slightly faster than last year, and the overall risk is controllable [3] - Policy: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a positive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in - depth rectification of involution - style competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4] Market Driving Factors Analysis - Bullish factors: Decrease in supply - side output, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as furnace material [5] - Bearish factors: The resumption of production of steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5]