玻璃纯碱上下反复未来趋势走向何方

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, the downward space of glass is limited around 950 - 1000 yuan/ton, and for soda ash, it is limited below 1050 - 1100 yuan/ton [13][18]. - In the first half of 2026, the market may be in a volatile state, with limited downward space at low levels and limited upward space at high levels [115]. - Against the backdrop of a stronger RMB exchange rate and a shrinking Sino - US interest rate spread, the pricing logic of domestic asset prices has changed. The trend of anti - deflation and anti - involution is not conducive to excessive short - selling of glass and soda ash [115]. - The glass industry may have clear anti - deflation and anti - involution measures in 2026, but the time is uncertain. The window period when leading stocks in the stock market stabilize and rebound may be the time for futures to trade anti - deflation and anti - involution factors [115]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Glass Views - Bearish Logic: Terminal demand has not improved, with scattered orders and pressure on payment collection; the implementation of anti - deflation and anti - involution may be late, and the high premium of futures is incorrect; the continuous high premium of futures in the long - term leads to large intermediate inventory and warehouse receipt pressure [4]. - Bullish Logic: The risk - return ratio is appropriate as prices are at a near - decade low and the whole industry is in a loss state; anti - deflation and anti - involution are trends, and there will be a shift from petroleum coke to natural gas in Hubei; after four years of decline, the real estate market has limited room for further contraction [5]. Trading Routes - Bearish Trading Route: Enter when the futures premium reaches 20%, inventory increases year - on - year and month - on - month, and supply contraction is not obvious or in a policy vacuum period. The strategy is to buy spot and short futures, increase the ratio of futures/spot positions, and close the position when the valuation is between 950 - 1000 yuan/ton due to basis regression. The risk is the unexpected acceleration of anti - deflation and anti - involution policies [7][8]. - Bullish Trading Route: Driven by factors such as the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread, the continuous appreciation of the RMB, and the pursuit of leading industrial assets. The valuation is based on the cost line and futures discount, and it involves multi - asset linkage of glass stocks and glass futures. The core drivers are policy - driven anti - deflation and anti - involution, and capital - driven factors including the Sino - US interest rate spread, RMB appreciation, and the appreciation of leading industrial stocks [10][11]. Supply - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 21,330 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of newly ignited production lines was 15,010 tons/day. The potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting volume of 14,490 tons/day, and the potential old - line复产 production lines have a total daily melting volume of 9,370 tons. The potential cold - repair production lines have a total daily melting volume of 9,420 tons/day [37][38][39]. - The current in - production capacity is about 150,000 tons/day, and the peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day. Usually, production cuts are likely to occur from the end of the fourth quarter to the first quarter [43]. Price and Profit - Most prices are stable with little change, but market transactions declined in the second half of this week. The price in Shahe is around 1000 - 1020 yuan/ton, in central China's Hubei around 1020 - 1060 yuan/ton, and in eastern China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions of some large manufacturers around 1110 - 1250 yuan/ton [56][60]. - The basis has strengthened due to the decline in futures prices. The profit of petroleum coke is about - 7 yuan/ton, and the profits of natural gas and coal - fired fuels are about - 186 and - 74 yuan/ton respectively [61][67]. Inventory and Downstream Start - up - After New Year's Day, transactions improved and inventory decreased, but transactions declined in the second half of this week. Current inventory is high, and most regions' inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history [70][72]. - Regional arbitrage shows that prices in various regions are basically synchronized with little change in price differences [75]. Soda Ash Soda Ash Views - Bearish Logic: High supply and high inventory, with the average weekly output of heavy soda remaining above 400,000 tons and the weekly rigid demand at 340,000 - 350,000 tons; the continuous high premium of futures will lead to the continuous flow of future spot supply surplus pressure to the futures market; new devices such as Yuanxing and Jinshan will be put into production in the next year, with a new production capacity increase of about 15%, while demand tends to shrink [14]. - Bullish Logic: Anti - deflation and anti - involution are trends, with low profits, low absolute prices, low risks, and high potential benefits; the inventory structure is concentrated, the export market has improved, and the prices of light and heavy soda are the same; the huge warehouse receipts of the SA2509 contract failed to completely suppress the market, and it is difficult to have such high warehouse receipts in 2026 [14]. Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash devices have resumed production, and the operating rate has gradually increased. The current capacity utilization rate is 86.8%, up from 84.4% last week. The current weekly output of heavy soda has reached about 414,000 tons/week [94][95]. - The inventory is about 1.37 million tons. As of January 22, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.37 million tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from last Thursday, with a decline of 2%. Among them, the inventory of heavy soda was 557,000 tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons month - on - month [97][99]. Price and Profit - The low - end price in Shahe is 1140 yuan/ton, and the market price has declined slightly. The ex - factory prices of manufacturers are mostly stable. The basis has strengthened due to the decline in futures prices [106][107][109]. - The profit of the combined - soda process in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 40 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 58 yuan/ton [113]. Photovoltaic Glass - Price and Profit: Recent market transactions have weakened, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is 17.5 - 18.5 yuan/square meter, both unchanged from last week [81][83]. - Capacity and Inventory: Recent market transactions have weakened, and inventory is expected to increase seasonally. The number of in - production photovoltaic glass production lines in the country is 400, with a total daily melting volume of 87,620 tons/day, unchanged from last week. The sample inventory days are about 38.94 days, a decrease of 3.07% month - on - month [85][86][91].