【冠通期货研究报告】养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260123

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is expected to continue its oscillating trend, with prices remaining high and stable despite regulatory changes such as grain depots stopping purchases and increased auctions [1]. - The corn market has both support and pressure, with prices staying high and oscillating. It is advisable to view it as a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival, and consider buying on dips if there is a significant decline [1]. - The egg price surge indicates the egg - laying chicken farming industry is out of the trough and in a profit - repair phase. Although there are supply - related uncertainties, it is not recommended to be overly bearish due to improved存栏量marginally compared to H2 2025 [2]. - For the pig market, there is a large basis between the near - month spot and futures. Near - month buying is strong in the short term, while the far - month needs further capacity reduction of sows and存栏 before strengthening expectations, which should be evidenced by continuous reduction before March [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean - Low - protein soybean prices in the Northeast production area have declined, while high - protein soybean supply is tight with a high - quality, high - price feature. Some areas have 39% protein content commercial beans priced around 2.2 yuan per catty [1]. - The 76,228 - ton two - way domestic purchase and sale of China Grain Reserves Corporation were all sold, showing short - term market support. Market prices remain high and stable despite regulatory changes [1]. Corn - Policy - driven imports and auction sales of corn supplement the market supply, but transactions often have premiums, boosting market sentiment. However, downstream enterprises' low acceptance of high - priced corn may limit price increases [1]. - The corn market has support from strong grassroots price - holding sentiment and downstream rigid restocking demand, but also faces pressure. Future focus is on grassroots selling mentality and policy release intensity [1]. Egg - The sharp rise in egg prices marks the egg - laying chicken farming industry's exit from the trough and profit - repair. But price rebounds have led to hesitation in old - hen culling, and there is a balance between reduced new additions and increased delayed culling in supply [2]. - After the price increase, inventory has emerged, and the market is in a state of indecision. There is a slight decline after the price peak, and there is no obvious driving force. It is not recommended to be overly bearish due to improved存栏量 [2]. Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and it was 101.6% of the normal inventory. In October 2025, the sow inventory was 39.9 million [2]. - In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4% compared to the previous year. At the end of 2025, the national pig存栏 was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% compared to the end of the previous year [2]. - There is a large basis between the near - month spot and futures, leading to strong near - month buying in the short term. The far - month needs continuous reduction of sows and存栏 before March to strengthen expectations [2].