地缘+化工板块推动，甲醇偏强运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The coal - to - methanol profit is around 320 - 350 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol supply remains loose. The US dollar price has a small increase, with most Iranian plants shut down due to gas restrictions, and the overall overseas market is at a low operating level. The MTO device operating rate has dropped significantly. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the basis is relatively stable; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Considering the overall situation, although the coal price is weakly fluctuating and the domestic supply is loose, the unstable Middle - East situation and the strong operation of domestic chemical products provide strong support for methanol [4]. - Trading strategies include: for single - side trading, gradually build long positions for the 05 contract on dips; for arbitrage, pay attention to positive spreads; in the over - the - counter market, sell put options [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Supply: The coal - to - methanol profit is around 320 - 350 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate is stable at a high level, with continuous domestic supply. The US dollar price has a small increase, most Iranian devices are shut down due to gas restrictions, the non - Iranian operating rate has dropped, and the overall overseas operating rate is at a low level. The import volume in January is expected to be around 120 tons, and the import volume in February is expected to be revised up to around 80 tons. The coal price is weakly fluctuating, and the domestic supply is loose [4]. - Demand: The MTO device operating rate has dropped significantly, with multiple large - scale MTO devices shut down or operating at a low load. The inland MTO operating rate is stable, and some CTOs make external purchases [4]. - Inventory: The port inventory has decreased due to the reduction of imported arrivals caused by navigation closures, and the basis is relatively stable; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4]. - Trading Strategies: Single - side trading: gradually build long positions for the 05 contract on dips; Arbitrage: pay attention to positive spreads; Over - the - counter market: sell put options [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - Supply - Domestic: As of January 22, the overall domestic methanol device operating load is 77.41%, a decrease of 0.50 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.28 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region is 88.44%, a decrease of 1.01 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.74 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol is 70.91%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points from last week [5]. - Supply - International: From January 10 - 16, 2026, the international methanol (excluding China) production is 866,709 tons, a decrease of 1,190 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate is 59.41%, a decrease of 0.08% from last week. The Petronas No. 2 device has restarted, and the Indonesian device is under maintenance [5]. - Supply - Import: From January 15 - 21, 2026, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol is 28.49 tons, including 26.35 tons of foreign vessels and 2.14 tons of domestic vessels (1.41 tons in Jiangsu and 0.73 tons in Guangdong) [5]. - Demand - MTO: As of January 22, 2026, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 44.38%, a decrease of 9.46 percentage points from last week. The national olefin device operating rate is 85.15%, with the Zhejiang Xingxing MTO device remaining shut down and the load of some enterprises continuing to decrease [5]. - Demand - Traditional: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is 5.25%, a month - on - month increase of 40.37%. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate is 80.67%, and the formaldehyde operating rate is 34.51% [5]. - Demand - Direct Sales: The weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 6.27 tons, an increase of 1.63 tons from the previous statistical date, with a month - on - month increase of 35.13% [5]. - Inventory - Enterprises: The production enterprise inventory is 43.83 tons, a decrease of 1.25 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.78%; the order backlog of sample enterprises is 23.83 tons, a slight increase of 0.05 tons from the previous period [5]. - Inventory - Ports: As of January 21, 2026, the total methanol port inventory is 145.75 tons, an increase of 2.22 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China has decreased by 1.36 tons, and the inventory in South China has increased by 3.58 tons [5]. - Valuation: The chemical coal in the northwest region is stable, the inland methanol auction price is weak, the coal - to - methanol profit in Inner Mongolia is around 390 yuan/ton, and the profit in northern Shaanxi is 380 yuan/ton. The port - north line spread is 330 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong spread is 140 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis is stable [5]. - Spot Prices: The price in Taicang is 2,260 yuan/ton (+30), and the price in the north line is 1,770 yuan/ton (-50) [8].