供应恢复，反弹高度有限

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, urea continues its oscillating pattern with low - price procurement. Attention should be paid to external disturbances. Mainstream factory ex - factory prices in most regions are stable, but market sentiment is low and trading is weak. Industrial compound fertilizer开工率 has increased, but raw material and finished - product inventories are high, and grass - roots orders are scarce. Agricultural procurement is mainly for rigid demand, and traders are starting to sell due to fear of high prices. New orders are weak [4]. - Domestic gas - head maintenance devices have partially returned, and the daily output has rebounded to over 200,000 tons, running at a high level. The Indian tender result is CFR $420 per ton, with a total counter - offer of around 960,000 tons from the east and west coasts. Although international prices have been rising, the domestic - international price difference is still large, but there are no new domestic quotas, so the overall impact is limited [4]. - The compound fertilizer开工率 in the Central Plains and Northeast regions is stable. Compound fertilizer enterprises that stopped production due to environmental protection in Hebei and Henan have resumed production, and enterprises with low raw material inventories are purchasing at low prices. The procurement progress of off - season storage enterprises has basically reached over 70%, and the procurement intensity will gradually slow down [4]. - As the ex - factory price rises, downstream resistance increases, traders sell due to fear of high prices, agricultural procurement enthusiasm cools down, factory orders weaken, and ex - factory quotes start to decline. The futures price decline further cools the spot market sentiment. Although the overall order - receiving situation has improved after the urea manufacturers lower the ex - factory quotes, downstream customers in high - price sales areas still resist. In the short term, it will continue to oscillate, and cautious operation is recommended [4]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, short at high prices and do not chase short positions; for arbitrage, wait and see; for over - the - counter trading, wait and see [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 2. Core Data Changes - Supply - National: In the 3rd week of 2026 (20260115 - 0121), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 95.30%, a week - on - week increase of 0.70%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 54.07%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72%. There were 3 new coal - based device shutdowns and 4 coal - based enterprise shutdown devices resumed production during the period [5]. - Supply - Shandong: In the 3rd week of 2026 (20260115 - 0121), the capacity utilization rate of Shandong urea was 97.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The Ming Shui device had a slight production reduction, and other enterprises' production was basically normal [5]. - Demand - Melamine: In the 4th week of 2026 (20260116 - 0122), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 63.65%, an increase of 1.47 percentage points from the previous week [5]. - Demand - Compound Fertilizer: From 20260116 - 0122, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer in this cycle was 42.96%, a week - on - week increase of 2.88 percentage points [5]. - Demand - Compound Fertilizer Urea Demand: As of January 23, 2026, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,840 tons, an increase of 460 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 33.33% [5]. - Demand - Northeast Arrival Volume: From 20260116 - 20260123, the arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week. Downstream factories and traders mainly purchase low - price goods for rigid demand and resist price increases [5]. - Demand - Advance Receipts: As of January 21, 2026, the advance order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.88 days, a decrease of 0.18 days from the previous cycle, a week - on - week decrease of 2.97% [5]. - Inventory - Enterprise: On January 21, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 946,000 tons, a decrease of 40,100 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.07%. The inventory reduction was mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia [5]. - Inventory - Port: As of January 22, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 134,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Valuation: In terms of profit, the price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal rebounded, the price of Yulin pulverized coal was weak, the urea spot price increased, and the urea production profit expanded. The fixed - bed production profit was 70 yuan/ton, the water - coal - slurry production profit was 150 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production profit was 390 yuan/ton. The futures price rebounded, the basis was around - 80 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan/ton [5]