【冠通期货研究报告】沥青日报：震荡运行-20260123

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage. The supply is affected by refinery production adjustments and raw material supply, and the demand will further slow down due to seasonal factors. The current inventory is at a relatively low level, and the base price is also low [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Supply: This week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8% week - on - week, 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. Next week, some local refineries in Shandong will stop producing asphalt, and the operating rate will remain low [1]. - Demand: This week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 14% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. With the decrease in temperature, the northern road construction is gradually ending, and the subsequent rigid demand will further slow down, and the southern projects are also entering the final stage [1]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 23, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 13.6% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years [5]. - Price and Basis: The price of asphalt in Shandong increased slightly, and the basis of the 03 contract rose to - 146 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [1][3]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 0.68% to 3236 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3210 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3256 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 16,693 to 186,664 lots [2]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply - Side Operating Rate: Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil, causing the asphalt operating rate to decline by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8% week - on - week, 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [5]. - Investment Data: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. In 2025, from January to December, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year [5]. - Social Financing Data: From January to December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.3%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to November, and the recovery of medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises was still weak [5].