银河期货甲醇日报-20260123

Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical research report on methanol, dated January 23, 2026, from the research institute of Galaxy Futures [1][8][10] Market Review - The futures market saw a significant rally, closing at 2298 (+66/+2.96%) [3] - In the spot market, prices varied by region, with production areas having prices ranging from 1770 - 2020 yuan/ton, consumption areas from 2020 - 2120 yuan/ton, and ports from 2220 - 2260 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - From January 17 - 23, 2026, international methanol production was 887,359 tons, an increase of 19,600 tons from last week, with a capacity utilization rate of 60.83%, up 1.34% from last week. The main change was the shutdown of Petronas' No. 3 plant [4] Logic Analysis - Supply side: Coal - to - methanol profit is around 320 - 350 yuan/ton, domestic supply is abundant with high and stable domestic开工率. The US dollar price rose slightly, most Iranian plants were shut down due to gas restrictions, non - Iranian开工率 decreased, and the overall external market开工率 was low. The import forecast for January was about 120 tons, and for February it was revised up to about 80 tons [5] - Demand side: MTO装置开工率 dropped significantly, with many large - scale MTO plants shutting down or operating at partial capacity [5] - Inventory: Port inventories decreased due to reduced imports from shipping closures, while inland enterprise inventories fluctuated slightly [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short at high levels (monitor Middle East situation) [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [7] Related Charts - The charts show data on methanol port inventories, enterprise inventories, and various开工率 from 2023 - 2026 [8][11]