铁矿日报：库存持续累积，铁水有所反弹-20260123

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The iron ore fundamentals show that the new shipments on the supply side are gradually decreasing, the rigid demand on the demand side is relatively stable, and although the ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually being transferred to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, but the futures contracts are in a back structure + positive basis with a futures discount, showing a certain resistance to decline in the short - term. The overall downside space of the market is limited, and the recent trend is slightly stronger in a volatile manner [5] Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main iron ore futures contract strengthened during the day, closing at 795 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton or +1.08% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 229,000 lots, the open interest was 569,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.949 billion yuan. The futures stopped falling and rebounded near the predicted support level of 780, and will continue to rebound in a volatile and slightly stronger manner in the short - term [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, Qingdao Port PB powder, rose by +5 to 802, and Super Special powder rose by +5 to 680. The swap main contract was at 104.65 (+1) US dollars/ton. Both spot and swap prices rebounded [1] - Basis and spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 836.8 yuan/ton, with a basis of 41.8 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 17.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 13 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, which is prone to rise and difficult to fall, and is in a volatile and slightly stronger state [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with significant decreases in Australia and Brazil and an increase in non - mainstream countries. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and there are expectations of supply disturbances due to weather [2] - Demand: The molten iron output increased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, the rigid demand was relatively stable, and steel mills were in the process of restocking, but the enthusiasm was still weak. There was strong game between upstream and downstream. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of restocking demand [2] - Inventory: Port inventory continued to accumulate, the inventory under berthing increased, and steel mill inventory also accumulated but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The total inventory pressure was still building up [2] Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: According to the December Federal Reserve Beige Book and the latest data from the US Department of Labor, the US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool down, the December CPI year - on - year dropped to 2.7%, the core CPI month - on - month was 0.2% lower than expected, and the weakening of commodity prices indicated that the tariff transmission had reached its peak. Consumption showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, with the high - income group maintaining resilience and the low - income group becoming more price - sensitive. Attention should be paid to the upcoming GDP and inflation data [4] - Domestic: In 2025, the domestic consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.7%. The service retail sales increased by 5.5% (1.7 percentage points faster than commodity retail), and its proportion in the overall retail increased. The final consumption contributed 52% to economic growth (a 5 - percentage - point increase). Service consumption was vibrant, with double - digit growth in retail sales in cultural and tourism fields, and movie box office increased by more than 20%. New - type consumption was active, with online retail sales increasing by 8.6%. Green and silver - haired economies became new growth points. In commodity consumption, the retail sales of cultural office supplies, furniture, and household appliances increased by double - digits. In 2026, consumption upgrading, policy effectiveness, and a better environment will support the stable growth of consumption [4]