沪铜日报：罢工应发供应担忧-20260123

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market opened low and rose within the day, but the impact of supply - related concerns on copper prices was small, with prices expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [1]. - Although the new energy market in the terminal showed poor performance in the short - term, subsequent policy subsidies and the New Year small peak season are expected to improve the production and sales situation [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The profit of smelters has narrowed, and the spot processing fee has weakened. Five smelters plan to stop production in January, and one new smelter's commissioning has been postponed, leading to an expected decline in refined copper production this month [1]. - The downstream copper procurement sentiment is low, resulting in a significant increase in copper inventory. From January 1 - 11, the retail sales volume of the new energy market was 117,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 38% compared to the same period in 2025 and a significant decline of 67% compared to the same period in December 2025 [1]. - The strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile has forced the mine to stop production. The mine was estimated to produce 29,000 - 32,000 tons of cathode copper in 2025 [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened low and rose within the day [3]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 190 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 135 yuan/ton. On January 22, 2026, the LME official price was 12,686 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 54 US dollars/ton [3]. Supply - side - As of January 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 46.2 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.80 US cents/pound [8]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 146,800 tons, an increase of 3,620 tons from the previous period. As of January 19, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 106,100 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 168,300 tons, an increase of 8,850 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 559,300 short tons, an increase of 4,444 short tons from the previous period [12].