尿素日报：窄幅波动，整体偏强-20260123

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The urea market shows a narrow - range fluctuation and is overall strong. The supply is stable, and downstream demand is continuous, leading to a bullish trend in the market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1.行情分析 - Urea opened flat and moved higher today, showing strength during the day. Trading volume improved, but overall activity was not high. The ex - factory quotes of small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,690 - 1,720 yuan/ton [1][3]. - Multiple data sources show that the daily production of urea is around 200,000 tons. No devices are planned for shutdown and maintenance, and previously shut - down gas - based enterprises are resuming production, with stable supply [1]. - After the weather cleared, agricultural dealers' purchases increased. The purchases in the Su - Wan region and the next round of green - returning top - dressing are short - term demand growth points. The operating load of compound fertilizer continued to rise, expected to be firm in the short term (1 - 2 weeks) and then decline [1]. - With the increase in production, finished product inventories are accumulating, and there is less sinking supply. Other industrial demands are also replenishing stocks before the holiday. This week, inventories continued to decline, mainly due to increased demand in Northeast China, and the downward trend is likely to continue [1]. - The national weather is expected to warm up in about half a month, agricultural demand will gradually start, and there is also an inventory replenishment expectation before the Spring Festival. Downstream demand is continuous, making the futures market bullish [1]. 3.2.期现行情 - Futures: The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1,781 yuan/ton, moved higher during the day, and finally closed at 1,788 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The trading volume was 246,360 lots (+4,108 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 469 lots and short positions increased by 4,667 lots. For example, Dongzheng Futures had a net long position of - 2,546 lots, Zhongjin Fortune had a net long position of - 222 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net short position of +1,508 lots, and Galaxy Futures had a net short position of +658 lots [2]. - Spot: The trading volume improved, but overall activity was not high. The ex - factory quotes of small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,690 - 1,720 yuan/ton [3]. - Warehouse receipts: On January 23, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 13,274, a decrease of 40 from the previous trading day, with 40 fewer from Hebei Dongguang (factory warehouse) [2]. 3.3.基本面跟踪 - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotes remained stable today, while the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the May contract basis at - 48 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton) [6]. - Supply: According to Feiyitong data, on January 23, 2026, the national daily urea production was 204,200 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the operating rate was 83.93% [7].