20260123申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260123

Report Summary of Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price closed 0.43% lower overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it continues to grow overall. After the release of optimistic sentiment, the copper price may have a phase - wise correction [2]. - The zinc price closed 0.53% lower overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. After the release of the overall optimistic sentiment in non - ferrous metals, the zinc price may have a phase - wise correction [2]. Summary by Related Catalog Metal Price and Market Conditions - Copper: Night - session copper price down 0.43%, domestic previous - day futures closing price 100,440 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 185 yuan/ton, previous - day LME3 - month contract closing price 12,756 dollars/ton, LME spot premium - 82.84 dollars/ton, LME inventory 159,400 tons with a daily increase of 3,100 tons [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 24,085 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 160 yuan/ton, previous - day LME3 - month contract closing price 3,133 dollars/ton, LME spot premium - 18.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory 507,175 tons with a daily increase of 24,175 tons [2]. - Zinc: Night - session zinc price down 0.53%, domestic previous - day futures closing price 24,305 yuan/ton, domestic basis 35 yuan/ton, previous - day LME3 - month contract closing price 3,233 dollars/ton, LME spot premium - 36.66 dollars/ton, LME inventory 111,850 tons with a daily decrease of 450 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 143,060 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 3,020 yuan/ton, previous - day LME3 - month contract closing price 18,100 dollars/ton, LME spot premium - 205.73 dollars/ton, LME inventory 284,664 tons with a daily decrease of 72 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 17,060 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 140 yuan/ton, previous - day LME3 - month contract closing price 2,034 dollars/ton, LME spot premium - 45.02 dollars/ton, LME inventory 222,650 tons with a daily decrease of 2,925 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 418,420 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 3,600 yuan/ton, previous - day LME3 - month contract closing price 52,660 dollars/ton, LME spot premium - 189.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory 7,210 tons with a daily increase of 250 tons [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Copper: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting output continues to grow, power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance output is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have led to an expected supply - demand gap [2]. - Zinc: Zinc concentrate processing fees are falling, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, smelting output continues to grow, galvanized sheet inventory is at a high level, infrastructure investment growth is slowing, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance output is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. Overall supply - demand differences are not obvious [2].