通货花生价格偏强，花生盘面底部反弹

Report Information - Report Title: "Peanut Prices of General Goods Are Strong, and Peanut Futures Rebound from the Bottom" [1] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [1] Core Viewpoints - The trading volume of peanuts has increased, the price of general peanuts in Henan is strong, the price of peanuts in Shandong is stable, and the price of peanuts in Northeast China has risen. The price of imported peanuts is stable, but the import volume has decreased significantly. The operating rate of oil mills has increased, the purchase price is stable, and the profit from oil extraction is stable. However, downstream consumption remains weak, and the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in oil mills has increased. It is recommended to sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option strategy, short - sell 03 peanuts at high prices, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for the spread between months [5][6]. Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Option Strategy: Sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option strategy [5] - Trading Logic: The trading volume of peanuts has increased. The price of general peanuts in Henan is around 3.65 yuan per catty, and the price of peanuts in Northeast China is around 4.65 yuan per catty. The price of imported peanuts is stable, with imported Sudan refined rice at 8600 yuan per ton, and the import volume has decreased significantly. The market expects the opening of imports from Senegal, with a rumored import price of 7400 yuan per ton. The operating rate of oil mills has increased, the purchase price is stable, the spot price of peanut meal is stable, the price of peanut oil is stable, and the profit from oil extraction in oil mills is stable. Downstream consumption remains weak, the inventory of peanuts in oil mills has increased, and the inventory of peanut oil has continued to rise. The market is trading on the increase in the spot price of peanuts. The price difference between peanuts in Northeast China and Henan remains high, but there is an abundant supply of oil - used peanuts in Henan. The spot price of peanuts in Northeast China has rebounded, the price of peanuts from Senegal is low, the cost of warehouse receipts is currently between 7900 - 8000 yuan per ton, and the futures price is basically the same as the cost of warehouse receipts. The willingness to take delivery of 03 peanut warehouse receipts is weak. This week, the 03 peanut futures have rebounded, and the spread between 3 - 5 has fluctuated within a narrow range [6] - Strategy: Short - sell 03 peanuts at high prices [6] - Spread between Months: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [6] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Peanut Prices - Domestic Peanuts: The price of peanuts in Henan is stable, and the price of peanuts in Northeast China has risen. The price of large peanuts in Junan, Shandong is 3.5 yuan per catty, remaining stable compared to last week; the price of new - season peanuts in Zhengyang, Henan is 3.7 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.1 yuan per catty compared to last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Changtu, Liaoning is 4.65 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.05 yuan per catty compared to last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin is 4.7 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.05 yuan per catty compared to last week. The trading volume of general peanuts is average, and the price of peanuts in Henan is relatively stable [11] - Oil Mill Oil - Used Peanuts: The purchase price of oil mills is stable, with the basic purchase price ranging from 6900 - 7900 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to last week [11] - Imported Peanuts: The price of new Sudanese peanuts is 8600 yuan per ton, and the price of Indian 50/60 peanuts is reported at 8000 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to last week [11] Domestic Demand - Oil Mill Operating Rate: The operating rate of oil mills has increased. As of January 22, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 47.22%, a week - on - week increase of 2.45% [15] - Oil Mill Inventory: The arrival volume of oil mills this week is 89,000 tons, a decrease of 5300 tons compared to last week. The peanut inventory in oil mills is 177,400 tons, an increase of 19,600 tons compared to last week. The peanut oil inventory is 49,600 tons, an increase of 1000 tons compared to last week [15] Pressing Profit - Pressing Profit: The purchase price of peanut oil mills is stable, the price of peanut meal is stable, and the price of peanut oil is stable. As a result, the pressing profit of oil mills is 190 yuan per ton, remaining the same as last week (Steel Union data) [19] - Peanut Oil Price: The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,400 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to last week, and the price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is 16,300 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to last week [19] - Peanut Meal: Due to the strong spot price of soybean meal, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and the price of peanut meal is stable. This week, it is 3100 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to last week [19] Basis and Spread between Months - Spread between Months: This week, due to the decline in the price of 05 peanuts, the spread between 5 - 10 peanuts is weak, stabilizing around - 330 yuan [26] - Futures - Spot Price Difference: The basis has declined [26] Peanut Imports - Peanut Kernel Imports: In December, the import volume of peanut kernels was 25,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was 252,000 tons, a 66% decrease compared to the same period last year [30] - Peanut Kernel Exports: In December, the export volume of peanut kernels was 58,000 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December was 212,000 tons, a 47% increase compared to the same period last year [30] - Peanut Oil Imports: In December, the import volume of peanut oil was 37,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume of peanut oil from January to December was 402,000 tons, a 58% increase compared to last year [30]