全球股票市场展望 2026年1月

Market Overview - Global stock markets are expected to have potential upside in 2026, with the S&P 500 projected to reach a target price of 7,600, representing a 10% return[10]. - The MSCI Emerging Markets index is forecasted to increase to 1,600, indicating a 9% return[10]. Earnings Growth - Earnings per share (EPS) growth is anticipated to be 11% in 2025, 12% in 2026, and 12% in 2027 for the S&P 500[7]. - The MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) is expected to see EPS growth of 10% in 2025, 19% in 2026, and 12% in 2027, driven primarily by East Asia and the technology sector[29]. Valuation Metrics - Current valuations for major indices like the S&P 500 and MSCI Europe are at historical highs, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12x[5]. - The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio is projected to be around 22x, reflecting an increase compared to historical averages, which is deemed reasonable given the macroeconomic backdrop[19]. Dividend Contributions - Dividend contributions are expected to play a significant role in total returns, with the S&P 500's total return driven by earnings growth and valuation expansion[15]. - The forecasted dividend yield for the S&P 500 is approximately 1.5% for 2026[17]. Sector Performance - The report highlights strong performance in technology stocks, with significant contributions to EPS growth from major players like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft[25]. - The aerospace and defense sectors are expected to gain traction in 2026, alongside a focus on re-industrialization in the U.S.[35]. Economic Context - The U.S. monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, supporting Asian markets amid a weaker dollar[27]. - The report indicates a healthy economic backdrop, with GDP growth projected to stabilize, further supporting market performance[27].