能化板块周度报告-20260123

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - In the short - term, for the polyester sector, PX and PTA will continue to rebound due to support from raw materials and limited supply pressure; ethylene glycol will have a restorative rebound due to expected tightening of overseas supply. For methanol, it will maintain a wide - range oscillation. For plastics, it shows a short - term rebound trend but lacks fundamental support. [33][34][62] - In the long - term, the polyester sector will show a differentiated trend. The operating centers of PX and PTA tend to move up, while the medium - term rebound space of ethylene glycol is limited. Methanol may maintain a wide - range oscillation, and plastics may continue to show a weak trend. [34][62][63] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Crude Oil Important Information - The possibility of the escalation of the EU - US trade war has decreased, reducing global economic downward pressure and boosting the commodity market. [3] - Arctic cold air has affected the Northern Hemisphere, causing the US natural gas futures price to soar, driving up the prices of EU and US diesel. Freezing damage in Texas may lead to the shutdown of oil wells and pipelines. [3] - The IEA has slightly improved the forecast of future energy demand, but the growth rate of the supply side is significantly faster, and there may be a significant supply surplus in Q1 2026. [3] - The situation in Iran remains uncertain, and the US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite talks are scheduled to be held. [4] - Last week, US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased, and crude oil production decreased. [5] Polyester Sector - Price Trends: The futures and spot prices of most products in the polyester sector increased this week, while the basis of most products decreased. [7] - PX: This week, the domestic PX supply decreased due to Zhejiang Petrochemical's overhaul, and it is expected to increase slightly next week. The Asian PX load decreased slightly. [11] - PTA: This week, the PTA supply decreased due to the shutdown of Ineos' device. Next week, the supply is expected to remain stable, and social inventory may increase. [13][15] - Ethylene Glycol: This week, the domestic ethylene glycol supply decreased, and it is expected to increase slightly next week. The port inventory increased slightly and is expected to continue to increase slightly. [21] - Polyester End: The weekly capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.20 percentage points to 83.49%. [22] - Polyester Inventory: This week, the inventory of staple fiber, FDY, and DTY decreased, while the inventory of POY continued to increase. [26] - Terminal: Orders remained sluggish, and the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to decline. [30][31] Methanol and Polyethylene - Price Trends: The futures prices of methanol and LLDPE increased, while the basis of both decreased. The spot prices of methanol decreased, and the prices of some plastics decreased. [36] - Methanol Supply: As of January 22, the domestic methanol operating rate and production decreased. The loss of production capacity this week was greater than the recovery, but production is expected to increase slightly next week. [43] - Methanol Demand: As of January 22, the MTO operating rate decreased, and the support of coastal olefins in the Yangtze River Delta weakened. Other traditional downstream sectors remained in the off - season. [46] - Methanol Inventory: As of January 21, the port inventory increased, and the inland inventory decreased. [49] - Plastic Supply: As of January 22, the domestic plastic operating rate and production increased. The number of devices returning to operation next week is expected to be large. [52] - Plastic Demand: As of January 22, the downstream plastic operating rate decreased, and the demand will continue to weaken seasonally before the Spring Festival. [56] - Plastic Inventory: As of January 21, both the social inventory and the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased, and the current inventory pressure is not large. [60]