Guoxin Securities·2026-01-23 12:37Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The real estate market in 2025 ended with a downward trend in fundamentals, but there are positive signals expected in early 2026 [3] - The cumulative decline in sales has widened, but the monthly decline has narrowed, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [4] - The overall investment environment is challenging, with significant declines in both real estate development investment and funds available to real estate companies [4][53] - Despite the downturn, there is an increasing probability that housing prices may stabilize, with a shift in sentiment towards a more optimistic outlook for real estate stocks [4][104] Summary by Sections Investment and Sales Data - In 2025, national real estate development investment reached 82,788 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%. The area of new housing started was 58,770 million square meters, down 20.4%, and the area of completed housing was 42,984 million square meters, down 19.8% [3] - New residential property sales amounted to 88,101 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 8.7%, with sales revenue of 83,937 billion yuan, down 12.6% [3] Market Trends - The decline in sales has been more pronounced cumulatively, but the monthly figures show a narrowing of the decline, suggesting a potential recovery [5] - The proportion of pre-sold housing has decreased, and the growth rate of unsold inventory has slowed down [4][6] - The average selling price of new residential properties in 2025 was 9,527 yuan per square meter, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3% [37] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a more optimistic stance towards real estate stocks, particularly recommending China Jinmao and China Merchants Shekou, as the market shows signs of potential recovery [4][104] - The probability of housing prices stabilizing has increased from "impossible" to "possible," with further improvements expected if the market does not repeat previous patterns of "price for volume" after the Spring Festival [4][104]