黑色金属日报-20260123

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: Not provided Core Views - The overall sentiment of commodities has warmed up, and the steel market has continued a slight rebound, but the sustainability remains to be observed [1] - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to its loose fundamentals [2] - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to fluctuate in a range, with market expectations for "anti - involution" policies [3][5] - For silicomanganese and ferrosilicon, it is recommended to short on rebounds [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market continued to rebound today. Thread demand decreased slightly, production increased, and inventory accumulated again. Hot - rolled demand and production both declined slightly, and inventory continued to fall. Steel mill profits are poor, and the downstream's ability to absorb is insufficient. The recovery of blast furnaces has slowed down, and molten iron production has stabilized. Domestic demand is still weak, while steel exports remain high [1] Iron Ore - The global shipping volume of iron ore has seasonally declined, but it is still at a high level year - on - year. Domestic port inventory has increased significantly this week and continues to accumulate. The terminal demand is at a low level, and the molten iron production is difficult to increase significantly in the short term. Steel mills' imported ore inventory is relatively low, and there is still an expectation of winter storage replenishment demand [2] Coke - Coke prices continued to rebound during the day. The first round of price increases was shelved, coking profits are average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory increased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness is average. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at a low level. The market has expectations for "anti - involution" policies, and the price is likely to fluctuate in a range [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded slightly during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1046 trucks. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the spot auction volume remained at a high level. Terminal inventory increased significantly. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at a low level. The market has expectations for "anti - involution" policies, and the price is likely to fluctuate in a range [5] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices rebounded slightly during the day. Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore increased. There are structural problems in the port inventory of manganese ore. The demand for semi - carbonate ore may increase. The demand for silicomanganese has a seasonal decline, and its production and inventory both decreased slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rebounded slightly during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. There are expectations of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. The molten iron production has rebounded to a high - level range, and the export demand has declined. The production of magnesium metal has increased, and the overall demand remains resilient. The supply of ferrosilicon has decreased significantly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]