三大油脂周度报告-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the trends of the three major oils were divergent. Palm oil showed the strongest performance among the three, with its futures price rising due to multiple positive factors such as reduced production and increased exports of Malaysian palm oil, and the clarification of the US biodiesel policy. The fundamentals of soybean oil are mixed, with supply - side pressure rising slightly and attention on the Spring Festival stocking. Rapeseed oil may see an increase in supply after March, and the medium - to - long - term futures price may be weak. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil has been repaired, and the cost center of soybean oil is expected to rise [64]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Spot and Futures Prices of Three Major Oils - From January 16 to 23, 2026, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2605) rose from 8674 to 8910, a weekly increase of 2.72%, and the spot price rose from 8630 to 8870, a weekly increase of 2.78%. The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2605) dropped from 9063 to 8991, a weekly decrease of 0.79%, and the spot price dropped from 10034 to 9976, a weekly decrease of 0.58%. The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2605) rose from 8016 to 8094, a weekly increase of 0.97%, and the spot price rose from 8402 to 8442, a weekly increase of 0.48% [4]. 3.2 Basis and Spread of Three Major Oils - As of January 21, 2026, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 388 yuan/ton (decreased by 38 yuan/ton compared with the previous week), 989 yuan/ton (increased by 11 yuan/ton compared with the previous week), and - 108 yuan/ton (decreased by 110 yuan/ton compared with the previous week) respectively. As of January 23, 2026, the YP spread was - 816 yuan/ton (decreased by 158 yuan/ton compared with the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Inventory of Three Major Oils - As of January 16, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.2 million tons (unchanged from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 74.61 million tons (increased by 1.01 million tons compared with the previous week), the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 96.33 million tons (decreased by 6.18 million tons compared with the previous week), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 171.14 million tons (decreased by 5.17 million tons compared with the previous week) [11]. 3.4 Supply - side of Palm Oil - As of January 20, 2026, the total port inventory of palm oil was 77.60 million tons (increased by 0.6 million tons compared with the previous week). SPPOMA data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 20 decreased by 16.06% month - on - month [15]. 3.5 Supply - side of Soybean Oil - As of January 16, 2026, the soybean inventory in national ports was 772.10 million tons (decreased by 30.7 million tons compared with the previous week), the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 687.33 million tons (decreased by 25.79 million tons compared with the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 55% (increased by 5% compared with the previous week). As of January 23, 2026, the soybean crushing profit was - 492.95 yuan/ton (decreased by 11.55 yuan/ton compared with the previous week) [31]. 3.6 Supply - side of Rapeseed Oil - As of January 16, 2026, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons (unchanged from the previous week). As of January 23, 2026, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2461.60 yuan/ton (decreased by 243.6 yuan/ton compared with the previous week) [46]. 3.7 Demand - side - On January 22, 2026, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 400 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 11300 tons, and the POGO spread was 405.49 US dollars/ton (increased by 1.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 805 million tons [59]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis of Three Major Oils - Policy: There are positive developments in China - Canada trade relations; Indonesia continues to rectify illegal plantations, revoking the operating licenses of 28 companies; the US biodiesel policy is about to be clarified. - Foreign factors: Brazil is about to start a record - scale soybean harvest. The US NOPA's latest data shows that the soybean crushing volume in December was 225 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. For palm oil, different institutions' data on Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 show different trends, and the production decreased by 16% month - on - month. - Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate increased by 5% compared with the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged from the previous week. - Inventory: As of January 16, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory remained at 0.2 million tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 74.61 million tons, and the soybean oil inventory in national oil mills decreased to 96.33 million tons. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil increased by 2.72%, that of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.79%, and that of soybean oil increased by 0.97% [63]. 3.9 Strategy Recommendations - Short - term: For palm oil, pay attention to the high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil, and the inventory inflection point is expected to arrive. For rapeseed oil, pay attention to China's procurement progress of Canadian rapeseed and the crushing situation of Australian rapeseed. For domestic soybean oil, pay attention to the Spring Festival stocking as the inventory is being reduced from a high level. - Medium - to - long - term: Palm oil futures prices are expected to rise as the origin is in the seasonal production - reduction cycle and the fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil have improved. Rapeseed oil supply will increase after March, and the medium - to - long - term futures price may be weak. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil has been repaired, and considering the cost - performance of soybean oil consumption, the cost center is expected to rise [64].