饲料养殖周度报告-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the US soybean market is gradually stabilizing, with downstream stocking demand emerging, so soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly before the Spring Festival. The hype about China - Canada trade has temporarily ended, and the domestic short - term supply and demand of rapeseed meal are both weak, so rapeseed meal will fluctuate in the short - term [35]. - In the medium - to - long - term, given the globally loose supply fundamentals, the overall upside potential is limited [36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Price Trends - Soybean Meal: The closing price of the futures main contract M2605 on January 22, 2026, was 2768, up 1.02% from January 15. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong remained unchanged at 3100 [2]. - Rapeseed Meal: The closing price of the futures main contract RM605 on January 22, 2026, was 2250, down 1.45% from January 15. The average spot price in China was 2430, down 1.22% [2]. - Corn: The closing price of the futures main contract C2603 on January 22, 2026, was 2295, unchanged from January 15. The spot price of second - grade national corn with 14.5% moisture at Bayuquan Port remained unchanged at 2330 [2]. - Pig: The closing price of the futures main contract LH2603 on January 22, 2026, was 11600, down 2.93% from January 15. The average spot price of commercial pigs in Henan was 13.06, up 0.69% [2]. - Egg: The closing price of the futures main contract JD2603 on January 22, 2026, was 3095, up 0.95% from January 15. The average spot price in the main producing areas in China was 3.74, up 6.86% [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost - side - Weather: The weather in southern Argentina remains dry, which may affect soybean and corn crops [8]. - US Soybeans: The US soybean export inspection volume decreased by 16% from the previous week but increased by 35% year - on - year. As of January 15, 2026, the export inspection volume was 1336684 tons. The export volume to China (mainland) decreased by 32% from the previous week but increased by 24% year - on - year. The total export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season reached 19335069 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40.2% [8]. - Brazil: The soybean harvest outlook in Brazil is good, but rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul and Matopiba regions needs close attention. As of the week of January 17, 2026, the soybean harvest rate was 23%, compared with 0.6% the previous week, 12% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 3.2% [8]. - Argentina: As of January 22, the soybean planting rate in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was 98%, compared with 95% last week and 99% in the same period in 2025 [8]. 3.2.2 Supply - side - Import: In 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record high of 111.83 million tons, a 6.5% increase from 2024. In December, imports were 8.04 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month but a 1.3% increase year - on - year. China did not import soybeans from the US for the third consecutive month in December [8]. - Supply - side - Import: As of January 22, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 450.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week, and the CNF price of US West soybeans was 472.00 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [13][14]. 3.2.3 Demand - side - Pressing: In January, the arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased. As of January 16, the weekly soybean pressing volume of oil mills was less than 2 million tons, and the total monthly pressing volume of major domestic oil mills is expected to be about 8 million tons, an increase of about 700,000 tons year - on - year and about 900,000 tons more than the average of the past three years [8]. - Transaction: On January 22, the transaction volume of soybean meal of domestic mainstream oil mills recovered, with a total volume of 249,000 tons, an increase of 102,500 tons from the previous day. The spot transaction volume was 66,000 tons, a decrease of 20,500 tons from the previous day, and the basis transaction volume was 183,000 tons, an increase of 123,000 tons from the previous day. The average transaction price was 3160.77 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.1 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - Demand - side: As of January 16, the average daily transaction volume of soybean meal of domestic mainstream oil mills was 631,500 tons, an increase of 317,800 tons from last week, at a relatively high level in the past five years [26]. 3.2.4 Inventory - side - Oil Mill Inventory: As of the end of the third week of 2026, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 948,000 tons, a decrease of 49,600 tons from last week, a 4.97% decrease. The coastal inventory was 807,500 tons, a decrease of 77,900 tons from last week, an 8.80% decrease [8]. - Inventory - side: As of January 22, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.5034 million tons, an increase of 78,500 tons from last week, at a very high level in the past five years. As of January 16, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 944,100 tons, a decrease of 74,700 tons from last week, also at a very high level in the past five years [22]. 3.3 Rapeseed Meal Analysis 3.3.1 Rapeseed Meal Supply - side - The report shows data on rapeseed imports from different countries to China, rapeseed meal production in China, and the expected arrival volume of rapeseed at domestic pressing plants [29]. 3.3.2 Rapeseed Meal Demand and Inventory - side - The report presents data on rapeseed meal's initial inventory, supply, demand,提货 volume at coastal pressing plants, apparent consumption, and inventory in China [32]. 3.4 Strategy Recommendation - Soybean Meal: Overseas, the US EPA is about to announce the final regulations for blended fuels in 2026 and 2027, which may support soybean demand. Brazil's soybean harvest is in the early stage, and the yield may reach a record high. In Argentina, the soybean and corn harvest progress is slow. Domestically, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking demand appears, but the high operating rate of domestic oil mills and the upcoming large - scale supply of Brazilian soybeans pose pressure [34]. - Rapeseed Meal: The hype about China - Canada trade has ended. The downstream inventory of the rapeseed industry is low, and the short - term supply is expected to be tight. However, the pre - holiday purchasing intention is weak, and downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis. Canadian rapeseed is expected to return to China after March, which will ease the current supply shortage [34]. 3.5 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The focus includes产区 weather, trade relations, US soybean exports to China, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [37].