Guoxin Securities·2026-01-23 14:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The real estate market in 2025 ended with a downward trend in fundamentals, but there are positive signals expected in early 2026. The probability of housing prices stabilizing has increased from "impossible" to "possible" [4][104] - In December 2025, the cumulative sales revenue of new commercial housing was 839.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%, while the sales area was 88.101 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year [3][5] - The total investment in real estate development for 2025 was 827.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 17.2%, with a significant drop in funding for real estate companies [3][53] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In 2025, the sales revenue of new commercial housing was 839.37 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 12.6%. The sales area was 88.101 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year. In December alone, the sales revenue decreased by 23.6% year-on-year [3][5] - The proportion of pre-sold housing in total sales decreased to 64% in 2025, down 6 percentage points from 2024 [6] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment in 2025 was 827.88 billion yuan, a decline of 17.2% year-on-year. The investment in December alone saw a year-on-year drop of 35.8% [3][53] - The funding available to real estate companies was 931.17 billion yuan, down 13.4% year-on-year, indicating a significant impact from low sales [53] Construction Activity - The area of new housing starts in 2025 was 58.77 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 20.4%. However, there was a slight improvement in new starts in December compared to previous months [87] - The area of completed housing in 2025 was 42.984 million square meters, down 19.8% year-on-year, confirming a downward trend as a lagging indicator [87]