白糖周报：印度糖产增泰国减，国际糖底部震荡-20260123

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: India's Sugar Production Increases, Thailand's Decreases, and International Sugar Prices Fluctuate at the Bottom [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - International sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, while domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to consider buying at the lower end of the range and selling at the higher end. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is suggested [3][4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading Strategies - Single-sided Trading: International sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. Domestic sugar prices will fluctuate within a range, and investors can consider buying at the lower end and selling at the higher end [4] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4] - Options: Sell put options [4] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - International Market - Global Supply and Demand Pattern: In the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 163,000 tons. The sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% year-on-year to 181.77 million tons, while consumption will only increase by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. In the 2024/25 sugar season, the global sugar market had a supply-demand gap of 292,000 tons. The 2026/27 sugar season is expected to have no significant increase in production, with a high probability of remaining at a high level or slightly decreasing [9] - Brazil: The sugarcane crushing season in Brazil is coming to an end. In the second half of December, the sugar production in the central-southern region decreased by 14.93% year-on-year. The 2025/26 sugar season's cumulative sugar production increased by 0.86% year-on-year, but the overall increase may fall short of expectations. The ethanol production and sales situation shows that the current alcohol-to-sugar price is about 17.57 cents per pound, and the alcohol-to-oil ratio in São Paulo is around 0.705. As of December 30, the sugar inventory in the central-southern region increased year-on-year, and the export volume decreased year-on-year. In the future, Brazil's sugar exports will experience a seasonal decline, reducing the global supply pressure [10][18][22] - Thailand: In the 25/26 sugar season, Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase slightly by 1 million tons, and the export volume is expected to increase by 1 million tons. As of January 17, 2026, the cumulative sugar production decreased year-on-year. Looking ahead to the 2026/27 season, Thailand's sugar production may decline by 7.5% to 9.9 million tons [28] - India: As of January 15, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar season reached 15.909 million tons, an increase of nearly 22% year-on-year. The final production may increase significantly year-on-year and may exceed expectations [32] - Domestic Market - Production: In the 2025/26 sugar season, as of December 31, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi decreased year-on-year, while in Yunnan, it increased year-on-year [36] - Sales and Inventory: As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi decreased year-on-year, and the inventory decreased slightly year-on-year. In Yunnan, the cumulative sugar sales increased year-on-year, and the inventory increased year-on-year [39] - Imports: In December 2025, China's sugar imports increased year-on-year, and the imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased year-on-year. The import profit is relatively high, but most of the imports have already been priced, so the correlation between domestic and foreign price differences is not significant [44][46]