Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express has a significant competitive advantage, primarily due to its leading market share, superior network management capabilities, brand premium, stronger stability among franchisees, and robust financial strength [3][14] - In the short to medium term, ZTO is expected to maintain its "quantity and quality" strategy, which, along with price increases and reduced low-cost packages, will optimize the demand structure in the express delivery industry, leading to a continuous increase in market share [3] - In the long term, as the competitive landscape stabilizes, ZTO is likely to develop a diversified service system, enhancing its profitability [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Development Review - The express delivery demand in China has transitioned from rapid growth to steady growth, with the volume expected to increase from 2.34 billion pieces in 2010 to 199 billion pieces by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.5% [1][34] - The competitive landscape has returned to rationality, with price competition being controlled within reasonable limits due to policies aimed at high-quality development [1][52] Company Development Review - ZTO Express has distinguished itself in the competitive landscape through innovative models and strategic foresight, becoming the first private express company to open inter-provincial network buses in 2005 and implementing a paid delivery model in 2007 [2] - The company has consistently led in investments in resources such as trunk vehicles and automation equipment, establishing a virtuous cycle of scale, cost, profit, and quality [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects ZTO Express's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 9.48 billion, 10.59 billion, and 11.78 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 11.7%, and 11.2% respectively [3][5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12X and 11X for 2026 and 2027, indicating that the stock is still at a low valuation level [3][6]
中通快递-W（02057）：持量质并举，长期价值凸显