宏观深度：宏观角度如何理解2026年消费

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0%, supported by net exports contributing 1.6 percentage points to the growth[10] - Domestic demand remains insufficient, with fixed asset investment declining by 3.8% year-on-year, significantly down from 2024[12] Consumer Behavior - The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) decreased to 0.61 by the end of 2025, down 0.08 from 2024[21] - Per capita consumer spending reached 29,000 yuan in 2025, a growth of 4.4% compared to 2024, marking the lowest growth rate since 2023[21] Employment and Income Trends - The average number of employees in industrial enterprises fell by 1.5% year-on-year as of November 2025, indicating a decline in employment absorption capacity[37] - The average disposable income per capita was 43,000 yuan in 2025, reflecting a 5.0% increase from 2024, but the growth rate is slowing[32] Policy Implications - The "惠民生" (benefit people's livelihood) policy is emphasized as a key strategy to boost consumption in 2026, focusing on income growth and consumer support[46] - The government plans to implement measures to enhance consumer capacity, including support for small and medium enterprises and expanding investment channels[46][47] Risks and Challenges - Geopolitical uncertainties and persistent inflation in the U.S. pose risks to economic stability and consumer confidence[52][53] - The slow recovery of market expectations among domestic entities may hinder the effectiveness of counter-cyclical policies in 2026[54]