策略周报：疫情结束的信号出现了吗？-20260124

Core Conclusions - The report indicates that the recent market has entered a phase of consolidation due to significant redemptions in broad-based ETFs and a slowdown in leveraged capital inflows, leading to liquidity fluctuations [1][12] - Historical signals for the end of spring rallies often include substantial policy tightening, unexpected external shocks, and deteriorating fundamental trends [2][18] - Current policies are aimed at supporting market stability, suggesting that the spring rally is not over, with a balanced allocation strategy recommended, particularly emphasizing technology and AI applications, while also considering cyclical sectors like real estate and consumer services [3][26] Market Trends - Recent changes in liquidity have been noted, with a significant net redemption of over 500 billion yuan in broad-based ETFs since mid-January, including 325.9 billion yuan linked to the CSI 300 index ETF and 81.9 billion yuan linked to the CSI 1000 index ETF [1][17] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has decreased from 4 trillion yuan on January 14 to 2.8 trillion yuan, indicating a cooling market sentiment [12][13] Historical Context - The report reviews past instances where spring rallies ended, highlighting that substantial policy tightening is a core reason, with examples from 2007 and 2017 where policy changes led to market downturns [2][18] - External shocks, such as the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and the 2021 Fed rate hikes, have also historically triggered the end of spring rallies [19][24] - Deteriorating fundamentals, as seen in 2012 and 2023, can lead to market corrections when economic data fails to meet expectations [19][21] Policy Environment - The current policy environment remains supportive, with liquidity still relatively abundant despite recent ETF redemptions, and the adjustment of margin requirements has not led to significant outflows of leveraged capital [3][25] - The report suggests that the ongoing spring rally has room for further development, with the potential for macroeconomic support from upcoming policy measures aimed at stimulating demand [26][27] Sector Focus - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI applications, is identified as a key focus area for investment, with recommendations to pay attention to specific sub-sectors where AI is being implemented [3][28] - Value sectors, including real estate and resource commodities, are also highlighted as having potential investment opportunities, alongside a short-term focus on service consumption [3][28]