Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-01-24 10:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major companies in the petrochemical sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [2][4]. Core Insights - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is influencing oil prices, with expectations of supply surplus in 2026. The report suggests that geopolitical developments will continue to dominate oil price movements, with potential for narrow fluctuations before any escalation [8][10]. - Major oil institutions predict a surplus in global oil supply for 2026, with the EIA forecasting a surplus of 2.83 million barrels per day, OPEC indicating a surplus of 70,000 barrels per day, and IEA adjusting its surplus forecast to 3.84 million barrels per day [11][12]. - The report highlights a decrease in U.S. crude oil production and refinery processing rates, with crude oil production at 13.73 million barrels per day, down by 20,000 barrels week-on-week [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The petrochemical sector saw a 7.8% increase as of January 23, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.6% [16][19]. - Among sub-sectors, other petrochemical segments had the highest weekly increase of 11.9%, while oil extraction had the lowest at 4.5% [19]. 2. Company Performance - Notable stock performances include Runbei Hangkai with a 33.40% increase, followed by Intercontinental Oil and Gas at 30.95% [21]. - The largest decline was seen in Baomo Co., which fell by 6.33% [21]. 3. Industry Dynamics - Natural gas production in China showed steady growth, with December output at 23 billion cubic meters, a 5.1% year-on-year increase [24]. - The report notes a decrease in oil exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, dropping from 5.09 million tons in November to 3.98 million tons in December [24]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders with stable performance and high dividends, such as China National Petroleum and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation [15]. - It also suggests monitoring companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which has low production costs and is expected to see valuation increases due to stable oil prices [15].