宏观和大类资产配置周报：本周沪深300指数下跌0.62%-20260124

Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.62% this week, with the CSI 300 index futures down by 0.10% [1][12] - The report maintains the asset allocation order as stocks > commodities > bonds > currency [3][4] Economic Growth and Policy Recommendations - The economic growth target for 2025 was successfully achieved, with a GDP growth of 5%. For 2026, a coordinated effort between fiscal and monetary policies is deemed necessary to stabilize growth [2][22] - The report emphasizes the need for the optimization and continuation of existing growth policies, such as the "two new" policies, and suggests increasing institutional openness to solidify China's position in international trade [2][22] Asset Performance - The report notes that the ten-year government bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.83%, while the active ten-year government bond futures rose by 0.12% [1][12] - The report highlights that the commodity futures index increased by 10.07% this week, with specific declines in coking coal and iron ore futures by 3.38% and 2.82%, respectively [1][12] Stock Market Insights - The report identifies that the leading index this week was the CSI 500, which rose by 4.34%, while the lagging index was the SSE 50, which fell by 1.54% [39][40] - It also notes that the construction materials sector led the industry gains with a rise of 9.18%, while the banking sector saw a decline of 2.69% [39][40] Bond Market Analysis - The report states that the ten-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate around 2%, with a low allocation recommendation for bonds due to potential short-term impacts from stock-bond dynamics [4][44] - The credit spread decreased by 1 basis point to 0.40%, indicating a slight improvement in credit market conditions [44] Commodity Market Trends - The report indicates that the social inventory of construction materials remained stable at 5.84 million tons, while coal inventory at major ports was also stable at 69.39 million tons [28][29] - The report suggests that the implementation of fiscal policies will be crucial for the commodity market's performance in the coming weeks [4][39] Currency and Foreign Exchange - The report notes that the seven-day annualized yield of money market funds, such as Yu'ebao, remained stable at 1.00% [1][12] - The report highlights that the Chinese economy's fundamentals support a wide fluctuation in the exchange rate, maintaining a standard allocation for foreign exchange assets [4]