锌周报：情绪退潮，回归产业弱现实-20260124

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The zinc ore's visible inventory is marginally accumulating, and the TC of zinc concentrate has stopped falling and stabilized. The profit of zinc smelting has slightly improved, while the destocking of domestic zinc ingot social inventory has slowed down. After the repair of the Shanghai-London ratio, the situation of element outflow has improved, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The US PMI data released on the night of January 23 was slightly lower than expected, and the double-loose policy has not yet been reflected in the economic data. Before the release of the next round of economic data, the non-ferrous sector may enter a period of volatile consolidation, during which the trading focus of Shanghai zinc may shift from strong macro to weak reality [11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 - Weekly Assessment - Price Review: Last Friday, the Shanghai Zinc Index closed up 0.77% at 24,600 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 223,000 lots in unilateral trading. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Zinc 3S rose 40 to $3,239/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total open interest of 228,800 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 24,620 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 40 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of -20 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of 15 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai-Guangdong price difference of 25 yuan/ton [11] - Domestic Structure: The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was recorded at 30,000 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on January 22 was 108,600 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from January 19. The basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was 40 yuan/ton, and the difference between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was -60 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was recorded at 111,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were recorded at 8,800 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$36.66/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$26.62/ton. Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was recorded at 1.095, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,051.57 yuan/ton [11] - Industry Data: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was $30/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 286,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 618,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was recorded at 55.63%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 388,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy was recorded at 51.26%, with a raw material inventory of 10,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 12,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was recorded at 58.66%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11] 02 - Macro Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new orders and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metal manufacturing industries, but no specific text analysis is provided [14][16] 03 - Supply Analysis - Zinc Ore Supply: In December 2025, the zinc ore output was 287,800 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 5.85% and a month - on - month change of -7.58%. From January to December, the total zinc ore output was 3,669,800 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -0.86%. In December 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 462,600 dry tons, with a year - on - year change of 1.15% and a month - on - month change of -10.44%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 5,318,800 dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 30.4%. In December 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 496,000 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 3.82% and a month - on - month change of -8.8%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 6,063,200 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.5% [25][27] - Zinc Concentrate: The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 286,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 618,000 physical tons. The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was $30/dry ton [11][27][29] - Zinc Ingot Supply: In December 2025, the zinc ingot output was 552,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of 6.9% and a month - on - month change of -7.2%. From January to December, the total zinc ingot output was 6,834,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In December 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was -16,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of -148.9% and a month - on - month change of -31.5%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 242,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -48.9%. In December 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 536,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of -2.3% and a month - on - month change of -6.3%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 7,076,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.2% [33][35] 04 - Demand Analysis - Initial - Stage Industries: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 55.63%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 388,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy was 51.26%, with a raw material inventory of 10,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 12,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.66%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11][39] - Apparent Demand: In December 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 553,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of -8.7% and a month - on - month change of -8.5%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 6,960,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4% [41] 05 - Supply - Demand and Inventory - Inventory: The report presents multiple charts related to zinc ingot factory inventory, in - transit inventory, bonded area inventory, social inventory, and total inventory, but no specific text analysis is provided [45][47][49] - Supply - Demand Balance: In December 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of zinc ingots was a shortage of -16,000 tons. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of zinc ingots was a surplus of 116,000 tons. In October 2025, the overseas supply - demand gap of refined zinc was a shortage of 28,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas supply - demand gap of refined zinc was a surplus of 78,000 tons [52][55] 06 - Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 30,000 tons. On January 22, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 108,600 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from January 19. The basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was 40 yuan/ton, and the difference between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was -60 yuan/ton [60] - Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 111,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,800 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$36.66/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$26.62/ton [63] - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.095, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,051.57 yuan/ton [66] - Position Analysis: The top 20 positions in Shanghai zinc were only slightly net long. For LME zinc, the net long position of investment funds increased, while the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, it is neutral in the short term [69]