铜周报：贵金属新高，铜价震荡偏强-20260124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the valuation of copper is neutral to bearish, with narrowing basis spreads inside and outside the market, narrowing spreads between refined and scrap copper, and continuously increasing global visible inventories. In terms of drivers, the decline in the US dollar index and copper concentrate prices is bullish, while the global manufacturing PMI is slightly bearish. At the price level, the easing of US - EU tensions, the emphasis on strategic resource demand in Germany, the loose domestic policy, and the record - high precious metal prices create a positive sentiment. The copper supply remains tight, with increased short - term disruptions at the mine end, and the demand for refined copper has improved after the price correction. Therefore, although the global visible inventory continues to increase and the LME North American inventory has marginally rebounded, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The expected trading range for the main SHFE copper contract this week is 99,000 - 105,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12,600 - 13,500 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The spot processing fee for copper concentrates continues to decline, and the smelting profit is supplemented by the high price of sulfuric acid. The processing fee for crude copper is flat week - on - week. There are supply disruptions such as the strike at the Canadian Capstone Mantoverde copper mine, road blockades at Escondida and Zaldivar mines, and some companies have adjusted their 2026 copper production guidance [11]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 905,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons. The inventory in SHFE, LME, and COMEX all increased. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 108,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons. The obvious inventory backlog shows relatively weak demand [11]. - Import and Export: The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports has narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium has decreased. In December 2025, China's refined copper imports were 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%. The cumulative imports from January - December were 3.828 million tons, and the net imports were 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [11]. - Demand: Copper prices first declined and then rose. The trading atmosphere in the spot market improved, and the overall transaction was stable. The downstream initial operating rate improved. The spread between refined and scrap copper narrowed, and the substitution of scrap copper was still limited [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Prices: Copper prices first declined and then rose. The main SHFE copper contract rose 0.57% this week, and LME copper rose 2.39% to 13,128.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of electrolytic copper and copper products in different regions and varieties are provided, and the price differences are also shown [23]. - Premium and Discount: The domestic copper spot in East China was at a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the futures on Friday. LME inventory increased, the cancelled warrant ratio decreased, and Cash/3M turned to a discount, reporting a premium of - 66.1 US dollars/ton on Friday. The domestic electrolytic copper spot import remained at a loss last week, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [26]. - Market Structure: The SHFE copper Contango structure widened, and LME copper turned to a Contango structure [30]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot rough smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrates continued to decline to - 49.8 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China slightly declined from a high level but still contributed positively to copper smelting revenue [35]. - Import - Export Ratio: The offshore RMB appreciated, and the spot SHFE - LME copper ratio rebounded slightly [38]. - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The loss of copper spot imports narrowed [41]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 58,000 tons to 905,000 tons. The SHFE inventory increase came from Shanghai, while the inventories in Jiangsu and Guangdong slightly declined. The LME inventory increase came from Asian and North American warehouses, and the cancelled warrant ratio continued to decline [44][47][50]. 3.4 Supply Side - Production: In December 2025, China's refined copper production increased month - on - month. It is expected to increase slightly in January 2026. According to NBS data, the refined copper production in December 2025 was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%, and the cumulative annual production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [54]. - Import and Export: In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The cumulative imports from January - December were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unforged copper and copper products, anode copper, and refined copper showed different trends in December 2025, and the import sources also changed [57][60][63]. 3.5 Demand Side - Consumption Structure: The global and Chinese consumption structures of electrolytic copper are presented, with different proportions in industries such as power, home appliances, and construction [76]. - PMI: China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs in December 2025 returned above the boom - bust line. Overseas, the manufacturing PMIs of major economies were differentiated [79]. - Downstream Industry Output: In December 2025, the output of some copper - related downstream industries increased year - on - year, while others decreased. The cumulative output from January - December also showed different trends [82]. - Real Estate Data: In December 2025, domestic real estate data remained weak, with year - on - year declines in new construction, construction, sales, and completion. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline [84]. - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates: The operating rates of different copper - related downstream enterprises in December 2025 showed different trends, and the expected trends for January 2026 are also provided. The operating rates of some enterprises this week showed rebounds or stability [87][90][93][96][99][102]. - Refined - Scrap Copper Spread: The domestic refined - scrap copper spread narrowed compared with last week, reporting 2,865 yuan/ton on Friday [107]. 3.6 Capital Side - SHFE Copper Positions: The total SHFE copper positions increased by 29,306 to 1,316,486 lots (bilateral), and the positions of the near - month 2602 contract were 186,300 lots (bilateral) [112]. - Foreign Fund Positions: As of January 20, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 16.4%. The long - position ratio of LME investment funds decreased as of January 23 [115].