蛋白粕周报：利空消化，重回震荡走势-20260124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The January USDA report data was slightly bearish due to a slight upward revision of the production estimates for the US and Brazil and a slight downward revision of US exports. However, the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that of the 2024/25 season. Recently, the US soybean export sales report shows that China has increased its procurement of US soybeans, which supports the CBOT US soybean price but is bearish for domestic prices. On the other hand, the bearish impact of the significant reduction in the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed has been digested. Overall, the price of protein meal may continue to fluctuate, and short - term investors should wait and see [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry Information: From January 8th to 15th, the US exported 2.45 million tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 33.03 million tons for the current season. During the same period, it exported 1.3 million tons to China, with a cumulative export of 9.42 million tons to China for the current season. From January 9th to 16th, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week. The port inventory of sample soybeans was 7.72 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of sample soybean oil mills was 55.97%, a year - on - year increase of 6.47 percentage points. The soybean meal inventory of sample oil mills was 840,000 tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons from the previous week. The January forecast for the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season is 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous season [10]. - Fundamental Assessment: The price of protein meal may continue to fluctuate, and short - term investors should wait and see [11]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents multiple charts related to spot prices, basis of main contracts, inter - month spreads, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, including data from 2022 - 2026 [19][22][25][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - Planting Progress: Charts show the defoliation rate and good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans from 2021 - 2025 [37]. - Weather Conditions: It provides precipitation observations and comparisons with the same period in previous years for Brazil and the US, as well as precipitation differences in different regions of the US, Brazil, and Argentina [40][42]. - Export Progress: It shows the cumulative signing volume, current - season and next - season export volume to China of US soybeans, and the monthly import volume of soybeans and rapeseed in China from different years. It also presents the monthly export volume, export volume to China, weekly and cumulative shipping volume to China of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the weekly and cumulative shipping volume to China of Argentine soybeans [48][51][54][60][63][66]. - Chinese Oil Mill Crushing: It shows the crushing volume of soybeans and rapeseed in major oil mills from 2022 - 2026 [57]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - Oilseed Inventory: It shows the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseed in major oil mills from 2022 - 2026 [71]. - Protein Meal Inventory: It shows the inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in major coastal oil mills from 2022 - 2026 [74]. - Protein Meal Crushing Profit: It shows the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed in coastal areas from 2022 - 2026 [77]. 3.5 Demand Side - Consumption: It shows the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal from 2022 - 2026 [81]. - Breeding Profit: It shows the profit per pig in self - breeding and self - raising and the profit per broiler in white - feather broiler farming from 2022 - 2026 [83].