双焦周报：预计盘面继续呈现偏强震荡，注意短期市场情绪扰动-20260124

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the short - term prices of coking coal and coke will continue to show a slightly stronger oscillating trend, while also highlighting the short - term impact of market sentiment and the current high - volatility risks [19] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: Last week, coking coal futures prices generally showed a trend of reaching the bottom and then rebounding, with a wide - range oscillation, and a weekly decline of 12.5 yuan/ton or - 1.06% for the weighted index. Coking coal prices were affected by factors such as the explosion accident at Baogang's plate factory, weak market sentiment, and Trump's tariff statement. Coking coal is in a daily - level rebound cycle, with support around 1130 - 1150 yuan/ton and resistance around 1260 yuan/ton. Coke futures prices also showed a similar trend, with a weekly increase of 5.5 yuan/ton or + 0.32% for the weighted index. Coke prices are approaching the long - term downward trend line since October 2021. If it breaks upward, the resistance around 1850 yuan/ton will be focused on, and the support around 1650 - 1700 yuan/ton will be monitored in the short term [14][17] - Weekly Key Points Summary: In terms of spot prices and basis, coking coal and coke have different price and basis changes. The coking coal main contract position is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and non - main contract positions in March and April are abnormally high, so the pressure of warehouse receipts after price increases needs to be watched out for. Domestic coking coal production has slightly increased, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port has rebounded to a high level. Australian coal imports are still unprofitable. Coke production is basically stable, iron - making water production has increased slightly, and the steel mill profitability rate has also increased. The apparent consumption of five major steel products has decreased, and steel inventory is still higher than the same period last year but within an acceptable range [18] - Supply - Demand Structure and Outlook: The estimated daily supply of coking coal in the country has slightly increased, and the estimated demand has also increased slightly. The supply - demand structure of coking coal has changed little compared with last week. The estimated demand for coke converted from iron - making water is slightly lower than the daily coke production, and the supply - demand structure of coke has also become marginally looser. In terms of inventory, the total coking coal inventory has increased, and the total coke inventory has also increased. Looking forward, the report believes that commodity bulls will continue, but the black sector currently lacks capital interest. Short - term price increases may be limited due to factors such as the marginal loosening of supply - demand structure and low downstream replenishment willingness, but the recent rise in Australian coal prices and the power shortage in the US may have a positive impact on sentiment [19] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Spot Prices: As of January 23, 2026, different types of coking coal and coke have different price changes. For example, the price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi has increased by 9.4 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke has decreased by 20 yuan/ton [23][34] - Basis and Calendar Spread: The basis of coking coal such as Shanxi low - sulfur main - coking coal and Jinquan Mongolian No. 5 coal has increased, and the basis of coke such as Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang's quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke has decreased. The 5 - 9 calendar spreads of coking coal and coke are negative, and both maintain a Contango structure [41][50] 3. Positions and Variety Ratios - Positions: As of January 23, 2026, the total unilateral position of coking coal is 636,600 lots, an increase of 18,800 lots compared with the previous week, and it is still at a relatively high historical level. The unilateral position of coke is 39,800 lots, a decrease of 500 lots compared with the previous week. The position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and non - main contract positions in March and April are abnormally high [59][60] - Variety Ratios: This week, JM/I has increased by 0.02, HC/JM has increased by 0.02, J/I has increased by 0.05, HC/J has decreased by 0.01, and JM/J has decreased by 0.01. Coking coal is slightly stronger than iron ore and slightly weaker than hot - rolled coils, and coke is slightly stronger than iron ore, hot - rolled coils, and coking coal. Currently, both JM/I and J/I are at relatively low historical levels, indicating that the valuations of coking coal and coke are relatively low compared with iron ore [64][68] 4. Supply and Demand - Domestic Coking Coal Production: As of January 23, 2026, the daily average production of clean coal from 523 sample mines is 77.01 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 tons, but the cumulative production in the sample is about 560,000 tons less than the same period last year, a decrease of 1.88%. The daily average production of clean coal from 314 sample coal - washing plants is 27.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28 tons, and the cumulative production in the sample has increased by about 1.15 million tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 18.22% [73][75] - Imported Coking Coal: As of January 17, 2026, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port has rebounded to 198,000 tons/day, at an absolute high level in the same period. In 2025, the cumulative import of Mongolian coking coal was 60.074 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2819 million tons or 5.78%. The estimated import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal is - 88.6 yuan/ton, and the import window is still closed. In 2025, the cumulative import of Australian coking coal was 8.8562 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4458 million tons or 14.03%. In 2025, the imports of Russian and Canadian coking coal increased, while the import of US coking coal decreased significantly and remained stagnant [78][87] - Coke Production: As of January 23, 2026, the total daily average production of coke from 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants is 1.1021 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 tons, and the cumulative production in the sample is about 460,000 tons less than the same period last year, a decrease of 1.48%. The coking profit of independent coking plants is - 66 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The daily average coke production of 247 steel enterprises is 469,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 tons, and that of independent coking plants is 633,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 tons [90][93] - Downstream Steel Industry: As of January 23, 2026, the daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel enterprises is 2.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 tons, and the steel mill profitability rate is 40.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.86%. The estimated disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils are - 155 yuan/ton and - 97 yuan/ton respectively, and the disk profits continue to recover. The apparent consumption of five major steel products is 8.0952 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 166,000 tons, but a year - on - year increase of 997,400 tons. The available steel inventory is 23.0322 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 73,400 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 2.1633 million tons, still higher than the same period last year but within an acceptable range [96][106] - Supply - Demand Structure: The estimated daily supply of coking coal in the country is 1.5333 million tons, with a slight week - on - week increase. The estimated daily demand for coking coal converted from coke production and iron - making water has also increased slightly. The supply - demand structure of coking coal has changed little compared with last week. The estimated daily demand for coke converted from iron - making water is about 1.0949 million tons, still slightly lower than the daily coke production, and the supply - demand structure of coke has also become marginally looser [108] 5. Inventory - Inventory Overview: As of January 23, 2026, the total coking coal inventory has increased by 383,600 tons compared with the previous week, and the total coke inventory has increased by 189,400 tons compared with the previous week. Different sectors such as mines, coking plants, steel mills, and ports have different inventory changes [112][113]