PVC周报：商品氛围好转，PVC跟随反弹-20260124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of PVC are poor. The comprehensive corporate profit is at a relatively low - neutral level, but the supply reduction is small and the production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. Although there may be a short - term export rush due to the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1, there is significant medium - term export pressure. In the context of strong supply and weak demand in China, the domestic demand is poor and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. In the short term, electricity price expectations, export - rush, and strong commodity sentiment support PVC, but in the medium term, the idea of short - selling on rallies should be adopted before substantial industry production cuts [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost and Profit: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan week - on - week; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is 2,855 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan week - on - week; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 820 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive integrated profit of chlor - alkali has dropped to a low level again, while the profit of ethylene - based production has increased, and the current valuation is relatively low - neutral [11]. - Supply: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 78.7%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period. The utilization rate of calcium carbide - based production is 80%, unchanged from the previous period, and the utilization rate of ethylene - based production is 75.7%, a 3.1% decrease from the previous period. Last week, the supply - side load declined, mainly due to the reduced loads of Fujian Wanhua, Shandong Hengtong, and Shaanxi Jintai. It is expected that the load will further decline next week. The overall load in January is still expected to be high, with a small reduction in production and large supply pressure [11]. - Demand: Currently in the off - season for exports, but with the planned cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1, there is a short - term rush for exports. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are stable. The load of the pipe industry is 37%, a 1.6% increase from the previous period; the load of the film industry is 66.1%, a 0.4% decrease from the previous period; the load of the profile industry is 31.5%, a 1.6% increase from the previous period; the overall downstream load is 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. Last week, the pre - sales volume of PVC was 884,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons from the previous period [11]. - Inventory: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 308,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous period; the social inventory was 1.178 million tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from the previous period; the overall inventory was 1.486 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous period; the number of warehouse receipts has increased. Currently, the inventory has started to accumulate. In the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, domestic demand has entered the off - season. Short - term exports may surge due to the export rush, but there is significant medium - term export pressure and it is difficult to digest the high production volume [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple figures are presented, including PVC term structure, East China SG - 5 price, PVC spot basis, PVC 5 - 9 spread, PVC active contract positions and trading volume, and PVC total positions and trading volume, which reflect the price and trading conditions of the PVC futures and spot market [15][16][18][25][27] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Figures show the in - factory inventory of PVC (including calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based), social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventory, warehouse receipts, and the profits of different production methods (Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integrated comprehensive profit, PVC calcium carbide - based profit, PVC ethylene - based profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit) [32][34][40][41] 3.4. Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have rebounded. The prices of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide have increased week - on - week. The report also presents figures on calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, the market price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi, the self - pick - up price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, the market price of liquid chlorine in Shandong, and the CFR spot price of Northeast Asian ethylene, which comprehensively reflect the cost situation of the PVC industry [11][47][48] 3.5. Supply Side - The historical trend of PVC production capacity is presented, along with the PVC production capacity put into operation in 2025, including the details of each device (location, process, production capacity, and commissioning time). The operating rates of PVC (overall, calcium carbide - based, and ethylene - based) and weekly production volume are also shown, reflecting the supply situation of the PVC industry [59][63][68] 3.6. Demand Side - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC (film, profile, and pipe) are stable. Currently in the export off - season, but there is a short - term export rush due to the upcoming cancellation of export tax rebates. Figures on PVC export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area are presented, which comprehensively reflect the downstream demand situation of PVC [11][73][81]