油脂周报：商品回暖，油脂跟随走强-20260124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of the palm oil market are weak, with high production in major palm oil - producing areas, sluggish exports, and high inventory levels. However, in the long - term, the expected reduction in Malaysian palm oil production, the confiscation of illegal plantations in Indonesia, and the expected increase in U.S. biodiesel soybean oil consumption in 2026 suggest an optimistic outlook. Short - term trading should be on hold [11]. - The price of edible oils may be approaching the bottom range [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Industry Information: From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield decreased by 16.49%, and the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08%. As of the week of January 16, the inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1.98 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The U.S. government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (B50 plan) and will maintain the current B40 plan. In January, the estimated consumption of U.S. soybean oil was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons from the December estimate and an increase of 1 million tons from the previous year. In December, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from November. In December 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons, production decreased by 5.46% to 1.83 million tons, and exports increased by 8.52% to 1.32 million tons [11]. - Fundamental Assessment: The valuation of edible oils shows that the basis of soybean oil (Y) is 05 + 526 yuan/ton, palm oil (P) is 05 + 20 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil (OI) is 05 + 759 yuan/ton. The import profit of palm oil is - 256 yuan/ton, and the biodiesel spread is at a medium level. The current production and inventory in major producing countries are high, soybean production has a slight reduction, global rapeseed production is high, and global sunflower seed production has a slight reduction. China's edible oil inventory is relatively high, while India's is relatively low. The overall assessment is that the price of edible oils may be approaching the bottom range [12]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies suggest a wait - and - see approach [13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, as well as the spreads between different contracts, including the 5 - month contract basis, 5 - 9 month contract spreads, and the spread between soybean oil 5 - month and palm oil 5 - month contracts [23][26][28][30]. 3.3. Supply Side - The report shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, which reflect the supply situation of different oil - related products [34][36][37][38]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - The report provides charts of the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit and main oil mill inventory of soybean oil, the coastal spot average crushing profit and commercial inventory of rapeseed oil, and the inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil [42][44][46][48][50]. 3.5. Cost Side - The report shows charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches, the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil, the near - month shipping import price of rapeseed oil, and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed, which reflect the cost situation of different oil - related products [53][56]. 3.6. Demand Side - Edible Oil Transactions: The report presents charts of the cumulative transactions of palm oil and the annual cumulative transactions of soybean oil [61]. - Biodiesel Profit: The report shows charts of the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which reflect the profit situation of biodiesel [64].