聚烯烃周报：投产错配叠加利润修复，逢低做多PP5-9价差-20260124

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Venezuela's oil and gas exploration rights belong to US oil and gas companies, with an upward expectation for capital expenditure. Against the backdrop of low profits in various polyolefin production processes, the short - term rebound of polyethylene (PE) is weaker than that of polypropylene (PP) due to the addition of new PE production capacity and large imports. There are expectations of production cuts during the spring maintenance period. According to the production plan, the PP2605 contract has no pressure from new production capacity. The alleviation of supply - side pressure may help the polyolefin prices continue to rebound [17][18] - This week's forecast: The reference trading range for polyethylene (LL2605) is 6700 - 7000; for polypropylene (PP2605), it is 6500 - 6800. The recommended strategy is to go long on PP2605 - PP2609 (a positive spread strategy) [17] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Information - Policy: Venezuela's oil and gas exploration rights belong to US oil and gas companies, with an upward expectation for capital expenditure. - Valuation: PE had a weekly decline (spot > futures > cost), and PP also had a weekly decline (spot > futures > cost). - Cost: Last week, WTI crude oil fell by - 2.26%, Brent crude oil fell by - 1.92%, coal prices fell by - 2.14%, methanol fell by - 1.10%, ethylene rose by 3.06%, propylene rose by 0.98%, and propane fell by - 0.33%. The cost side stopped falling and rebounded. - Supply: PE capacity utilization was 86.54%, with a month - on - month increase of 6.11%, a year - on - year increase of 1.00%, and a decrease of - 6.15% compared to the five - year average. PP capacity utilization was 75.31%, with a month - on - month decrease of - 1.70%, a year - on - year decrease of - 1.12%, and a decrease of - 13.89% compared to the five - year average. New PE production capacity was launched, resulting in greater supply - side pressure. - Imports and Exports: In December, domestic PE imports were 1.3299 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 25.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.62%. PP imports were 205,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 14.81% and a year - on - year decrease of - 4.83%. Import profits decreased, and the supply of PE from North America decreased, reducing import - side pressure. In December, PE exports were 92,100 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 7.27% and a year - on - year increase of 58.30%. PP exports were 230,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.89% and a year - on - year increase of 29.81%. The continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate put pressure on imports. - Demand: The downstream operating rate of PE was 40.80%, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 235.25%. The downstream operating rate of PP was 52.53%, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.13% and a year - on - year increase of 4.02%. The arrival of the seasonal off - peak season led to no highlights in the downstream operating rates of polyolefins. - Inventory: PE production enterprise inventory was 335,000 tons, with a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 4.37% and a year - on - year inventory increase of 3.08%; PE trader inventory was 26,600 tons, with a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 8.93%; PP production enterprise inventory was 432,900 tons, with a month - on - month inventory increase of 0.44% and a year - on - year inventory increase of 23.09%; PP trader inventory was 182,000 tons, with a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 6.14%; PP port inventory was 65,300 tons, with a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 7.51%. Coal - based enterprises significantly reduced their inventories [15][16] - Strategy View - Venezuela's oil and gas exploration rights belong to US oil and gas companies, with an upward expectation for capital expenditure. Against the backdrop of low profits in various polyolefin production processes, the short - term rebound of PE is weaker than that of PP due to the addition of new PE production capacity and large imports. There are expectations of production cuts during the spring maintenance period. According to the production plan, the PP2605 contract has no pressure from new production capacity. The alleviation of supply - side pressure may help the polyolefin prices continue to rebound. - Forecast for this week: The reference trading range for polyethylene (LL2605) is 6700 - 7000; for polypropylene (PP2605), it is 6500 - 6800. - Recommended strategy: Go long on PP2605 - PP2609 (a positive spread strategy) [17] 2. Spot and Futures Market - PE Market - Multiple charts are presented, such as the term structure, main contract price, main contract basis, 5 - 9 spread, active contract trading volume and open interest, registered warehouse receipts, and the ratio of virtual to real contracts of LLDPE, showing the historical trends and current situations of these indicators [30][32][37][39] - PP Market - Multiple charts are presented, such as the term structure, main contract price, main contract basis, 5 - 9 spread, active contract trading volume and open interest, registered warehouse receipts, and the ratio of virtual to real contracts of PP, showing the historical trends and current situations of these indicators [45][48][53][55] - Spread Analysis - Charts of spreads such as LL - PP, PP - 1.2PG, PP - 3MA, and LL - PVC are presented, showing the historical trends of these spreads [62][66] 3. Cost Side - The cost side of oil - based production stopped falling and rebounded. Multiple charts are presented, including the spot and futures prices and costs of PE and PP, the prices of WTI crude oil, thermal coal, naphtha, propane, etc., gasoline cracking spreads, P/N/C prices, LPG registered warehouse receipts, domestic LPG spot and futures prices and basis, Saudi CP prices, Far East FEI prices, the supply - side composition of domestic LPG, China's LPG production, China's crude oil processing volume, the capacity utilization rate and gross profit of Chinese major refineries, the capacity utilization rate of Shandong major refineries, China's LPG commercial volume, domestic LPG import dependence, China's LPG import sources, South China's LPG import profits, China's LPG imports, the water levels of the Panama Canal and Gatun Lake, the freight prices from the US and the Middle East to the Far East, LPG refinery and port storage ratios, China's LPG demand and chemical demand proportions, China's olefin LPG actual demand, MTBE production gross profit, MTBE device capacity utilization rate, Shandong MTBE device production, PDH production gross profit, PDH device capacity utilization rate, PDH device production, alkylation oil production gross profit, alkylation oil device capacity utilization rate, alkylation oil device production, US propane prices, production, stocks, exports, and product supply [71][78][84][86][88][90][94][99][101][103][107][112][116][118][120][122][124][128] 4. Polyethylene Supply Side - Raw Material Composition - The raw materials for PE production mainly include oil (80.00%), light hydrocarbons (12.00%), coal (5.00%), methanol (2.00%), and purchased ethylene (1.00%). The historical trends of the proportion of these raw materials are also presented [134][135] - Production Capacity and Production - The planned new domestic PE production capacity in 2026 is 5.2 million tons, including projects such as Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase III. Charts of PE production capacity, capacity utilization rate, maintenance loss, production volume, and LLDPE production volume are presented [139][138][141][143][146][151] 5. Polyethylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - Inventory - Charts of PE inventory - to - sales ratio, total inventory forecast, production enterprise inventory, two - oil enterprise inventory, coal - based enterprise inventory, trader inventory are presented, showing the historical trends and current situations of these inventories [158][161][162] - Imports/Exports - The import sources of LLDPE, PE import volume (monthly and cumulative), and LLDPE import profit are presented through charts, showing the historical trends and current situations of these indicators [164][166] 6. Polyethylene Demand Side - Downstream Demand Composition - The downstream demand for LLDPE mainly includes packaging film (51.00%), hollow products (12.31%), pipes (11.65%), injection molding (10.00%), agricultural film (7.03%), drawing (4.51%), and wires and cables (3.50%). The downstream end - use products and their proportions are also presented [171][176] - Operating Rates and Inventories - Charts of the total downstream operating rate of PE, the available days of packaging film, agricultural film order days, agricultural film raw material inventory, downstream raw material inventory, and pipe finished - product inventory are presented, showing the historical trends and current situations of these indicators [180][184][186] 7. Polypropylene Supply Side - Raw Material Composition - The raw materials for PP production mainly include oil (53.00%), PDH (25.00%), coal (18.00%), methanol (2.00%), and purchased propylene (2.00%). The historical trends of the proportion of these raw materials are also presented [193][195] - Production Capacity and Production - The planned new domestic PP production capacity in 2026 is 4.37 million tons, including projects such as Beifang Huajin and PetroChina Tarim. Charts of PP production capacity, capacity utilization rate, maintenance loss, production volume are presented [200][199][201][203] 8. Polypropylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - Inventory - Charts of PP inventory - to - sales ratio, total inventory forecast, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, coal - based enterprise inventory, PDH - based enterprise inventory, trader inventory, and port inventory are presented, showing the historical trends and current situations of these inventories [210][213][217][222] - Imports/Exports - The PP import volume, import profit, export countries, export volume, and export profit are presented through charts, showing the historical trends and current situations of these indicators [225][227][228] 9. Polypropylene Demand Side - Downstream Demand Composition - The downstream demand for PP mainly includes drawing (34.00%), high - and low - melt copolymers (24.00%), injection molding (17.00%), BOPP (6.00%), high - melt fibers (6.00%), transparent materials (5.00%), pipes (hot and cold water) (5.00%), and CPP (3.00%). The downstream end - use products and their proportions are also presented [233][238] - Operating Rates and Inventories - Charts of the total downstream operating rate of PP, injection - molding operating rate, pipe operating rate, plastic - weaving operating rate, plastic - weaving raw material and finished - product inventories, BOPP raw material and finished - product inventories are presented, showing the historical trends and current situations of these indicators [242][246][250][253]